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Sydney is about to enter its sixth week of lockdown, and the restrictions are getting stricter-so why will the virus continue to spread?
Virus experts said that the lockdown rules need to be tightened and better adhered to to curb the outbreak.
But an academic said that New South Wales may become the first state to be forced to “coexist with the virus” and abandon the goal of zero cases in the community.
Tony Blakely, an epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, said: “Until vaccination coverage is high enough, New South Wales may be forced to move forward clumsily and play a game of moles so that we can control the epidemic. “
The coronavirus outbreak that began in the eastern suburbs of Sydney in mid-June has surged to nearly 3,000 cases, and the spread shows no signs of slowing down.
New South Wales Governor Gladys Berejiklian admitted that Thursday’s outbreak is far from over — there were 239 new local infections on a record day.
Ms. Berejiklian said: “Based on these figures, we can only assume that, given the number of contagious people in the community, the situation may get worse before it improves.”
The governor and her health team have identified workplaces and “hygienic environments”—that is, doctor appointments and pharmacy visits—as some of the greatest risk areas for the spread of the virus.
Another big problem is that people violate the rules when visiting other families.
Infectious disease doctor Peter Collignon said he hopes that compliance with the rules will improve, even if the high daily number of cases seen this week suggests that this is not the case.
“It turns out that there is a delay of 7 to 14 days, so when people didn’t follow the rules a few weeks ago, many of the transmission problems we saw occurred,” he said.
Professor Blackley said that if particularly severe blockade rules in certain hotspots are implemented throughout the city, Sydney will embark on a faster track to curb the spread.
People in the municipal districts of Canterbury-Bankstown, Fairfield, Liverpool, Blacktown, Cumberland, Parramatta, Campbelltown and Georges River are prohibited from leaving their homes more than 5 kilometers and must always wear masks outdoors.
Professor Blakely said that extending the outdoor mask regulations to the whole of Sydney should be “no effort”.
“This year, we have a virus that spreads through short-term transmission, and it is more likely to spread in the coffee queue,” he said.
“When you are with someone, wearing a mask outdoors is a very powerful reason. Why is it not mandatory throughout Sydney, I don’t understand.
“If NSW seriously considers eliminating the virus in the next six weeks, you will do your best.”
Mikhail Prokopenko, director of the Complex Systems Center at the University of Sydney, agreed that outdoor mask regulations should be implemented throughout the city.
“Recently there has been some transmission in outdoor activities,” he said, referring to the spread of the Melbourne Cricket Ground during the recent outbreak in Victoria.
However, even if everyone abides by the rules, people who need to go to work for the functioning of society are still at risk of contracting and spreading the coronavirus.
Professor Colignon said that basic staff should always wear masks and face shields to protect themselves and others.
He said that during the Melbourne virus outbreak last year, the same problem of poor use of personal protective equipment was also obvious.
“Usually the basic principles are not followed-you are in the tea room, or handing over work with colleagues, you are not keeping a distance of 1.5m or wearing a mask,” he said.
He said that the mask is very important to protect the eyes from droplets that may contain viruses. This is necessary because the eyes are connected to the sinuses.
The New South Wales government has set a goal of ending the blockade by the end of August, but it is not clear whether this spread will be eliminated at that time.
According to Professor Blakely, New South Wales may have passed its last virus-free days.
He said that until enough people are vaccinated, the state may have to be content to keep community transmission to a minimum, rather than aiming for complete elimination.
People who are vaccinated against the coronavirus are less likely to become seriously ill once they are infected. This is why governments around the world are so eager to vaccinate their populations quickly.
The federal government says Australia should have enough Pfizer vaccines to have a major impact Until October.
Professor Blakely said: “It is vital that we have a flood of vaccines into Sydney, but it will take time for vaccination to get out of this situation.”
“It is almost certain that we will not get rid of it in the next four weeks, so maybe we have to develop a restriction strategy by October.
“New South Wales may become the first state to learn to coexist with the virus, and the rest of us will only do this when international borders are open.”
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