Analysts debate whether Ethereum’s London hard fork is a “selling news” event


Ethereum advocates are looking forward to the upcoming London hard fork at block height of 12,965,000 on August 5.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Transaction view It shows that the price of Ether rose from a low of US$2,450 in the early morning of August 4 to an intraday high of US$2,772, an increase of 8.2% on the same day.

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. source: Transaction view

One of the most common events in the crypto market is a sharp increase in prices before major news announcements or protocol upgrades, followed by a sharp drop in prices, because those who cash in early to lock in gains and those who are late to parties become bag holders.

The London hard fork of Ethereum has always been one of the most watched events in 2021, so it is short-sighted to assume that the price will only rise. This is emphasized in the following tweet by Murfski, which is an anonymous crypto analyst Twitter .

As shown in the chart provided, analysts caution against assuming that the price of Ether will rise above $3,000. According to Murski, if the price successfully reaches $3,000, if the token sells after the upgrade, it may soon fall back to a low of $2,000.

Although nothing is certain, the historical trend of price collapse after major developments should not be ignored, despite the bullish price performance of Ether.

Mursky said:

“In my defense, I am bullish at the bottom. When we are near the range high, you better be cautious. Good luck.”

Hard forks have always been bullish on the price of Ether

By looking at how past upgrades have affected prices, we can gain insights into what is expected of the price of Ether after the London hard fork. According to cryptocurrency analyst Josh Olszewicz, Eth’s local highs appear on average 80 days after a major upgrade.

Olszewicz’s observations were further confirmed by crypto economist Ben Lilly. His Detailed classification It shows that the average return after the upgrade is “5.1% in the next 30 days, 28.8% after 60 days, and 64.4% after 90 days”.

Because of this historical performance, Eli Lilly is cautiously optimistic that after the London upgrade, Ethereum will still have benefits in the future.

Lily said:

“Although at first glance, a lot of the gains we usually see through the Ethereum upgrade may have been played out, but I suspect there is still room. This is especially true when we rely on our internal signals, which imply that ETH is bullish. Within a few days to a few weeks, London is definitely an important catalyst event that deserves attention.”

related: According to ConsenSys, DeFi attracted 2.91 million Ethereum addresses

There may be a short-term correction in the short term

According to Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, once a hard fork is implemented, a callback may occur.

Although van de Poppe expects a short-term correction in the price of Ether, his long-term view of altcoins is bullish, and he predicts that the “most serious bull market” will come after the correction.

The views and opinions expressed here only represent the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading action involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.