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Australians finally have a vaccination target to end the lockdown, but people are already worried that the target is too low.
On Friday, the National Cabinet agreed in principle to a four-step Covid-19 transition plan based on economic analysis modelling by the Doherty Institute and the Ministry of Finance.
It set 70% and 80% vaccination goals This will see the gradual lifting of the blockade and the return of more international passengers.
But Mary Louise McLaws, a professor at the University of New South Wales and consultant to the World Health Organization, pointed out that the government’s target is only for adults over 16 years of age.
If children are included, they are only 56% and 64% of Australia’s total population.
“Australia must do better than these,” Professor McLoughs Tweet.
She said she calculated that Australia needs at least 68% (preferably 80%) of the population to be vaccinated.
The United Kingdom has opened up, and about 57% of its total population has been fully vaccinated, but the country has about 5.9 million new coronavirus cases (about 8% of the population), so it benefits more from natural immunity in the community. People with this disease.
In Australia, there have been 33,909 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus—about 0.1% of the total population.
The Grattan Institute also recommends that 80% of Australians and 95% of people over 70 be fully vaccinated before ending the blockade and beginning to reopen the border.
It said: “Opening prematurely—for example, at a rate of 50% or 70%—will run the risk of rampant spread of the virus and overwhelming hospitals.”
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Grattan suggested that once 80% of the population is vaccinated, the lockdown can be avoided and the isolation requirement for full vaccination can be eliminated.
Once 85% of people are vaccinated, all international border restrictions on vaccinated people can be lifted, and vaccine passports can be cancelled.
Once 56% of the total population is vaccinated in stage B, the government’s four-point plan will allow vaccinated Australians to benefit from reduced isolation requirements. The blockade will also be gradually lifted.
As part of Phase C, once 64% of the population is vaccinated, the vaccinated residents can live without restrictions, and blockades within metropolitan areas will be a thing of the past.
There will still be some restrictions on international travel, but restrictions on vaccinated Australians returning from overseas will be lifted, the travel bubble will expand, and more students, economic and humanitarian visa holders will be allowed to enter the country.
Until Australia enters “Phase D”, all restrictions will not be lifted, and there is currently no target for this.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that the Doherty Institute did not make recommendations on this because it is difficult to predict what will happen in that far future.
Mr Morrison said Australians should expect “early, strict and short-term lockdowns” to deal with the delta outbreak before achieving the stage B vaccination goals.
He told reporters on Friday: “This provides a clear understanding of the delta virus activity that has occurred in recent weeks and months and the work we have done to make this decision around the world.”
Australia has now provided more than 12 million doses of vaccine, of which 19% of people received two doses of the vaccine.
Mr. Morrison said that once the national average reaches each vaccination target, and once each state itself reaches these targets, the states and territories will enter each stage.
“So, it’s like a two-key process,” he said.
“I should also emphasize that, as we have learned in Covid-19, this plan is indeed subject to the rules written by Covid-19 itself. New variants that may emerge.
“If this happens, of course, we will study these very carefully.”
Anthony Macali, a data analyst who manages the website covidlive.com.au, estimates that based on the current vaccination rate, it may take until the beginning of December to reach the goal of stage B, and to reach stage C in early January. However, vaccination is expected to increase further, so these goals can be achieved earlier.
Grattan estimates that if vaccines are provided to children under 12 in the next few months, 80% of Australia’s population can be vaccinated as early as the end of this year.
“If the vaccine is not approved for children under 12 years of age, the target date in March next year will be more realistic,” it pointed out.
Australia Phase B
Australia’s national plan predicts that once 70% of the country’s adult population over the age of 16 (56% of the total population) is vaccinated, the country will transition to “stage B”. • Blockade is unlikely, but possible and targeted
• The maximum number of inbound passengers will be restored to the previous level
• A larger cap will be introduced for returning Australians who have been vaccinated, but details remain to be worked out
• Reduce quarantine requirements for vaccinated residents
• Students and economic visa holders are allowed to enter the country, but they must be quarantined.
Phase C
This stage will take effect after 80% of adults (64% of the total population) are vaccinated.
• It should not be a metropolitan blockade, although it is still possible to implement a highly targeted blockade
• People who are vaccinated do not have to comply with any domestic restrictions
• The cap on returning Australians who have been vaccinated will be lifted and people will be allowed to leave the country without restrictions. Entry restrictions for students, economic and humanitarian visa holders will increase.
The travel bubble of unrestricted travel will expand to safer countries, and the government has already cooperated with Singapore and Pacific countries on this.
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