Valley fever is spreading in hotter, drier regions of the western United States

In the next few decades, researchers will discover some important truths about Valley Fever.They found that it is an endemic disease in some parts of the world. The fungus that causes this disease lives in the soil. Most people infected by it have no symptoms. What’s important is that the weather patterns and seasonal weather conditions are prevalent. Coccidia.

Some years Previously, Earth System Scientist Morgan Gorris at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico decided to study an important question: What makes a place suitable for human habitation? Coccus? She soon discovered that the fungus thrives under a series of specific conditions. The average annual temperature in U.S. counties where Valley Fever is prevalent is higher than 50 degrees Fahrenheit and annual rainfall is less than 600 mm. “In essence, they are hot and dry counties,” Goris said.She pastes the geographic areas that meet these parameters on the map and superimposes them with the locations estimated by the CDC Coccus growing up. Sure enough, the counties extending from western Texas to the southwest to California (a small area in Washington) match.

But then Goris analyzed her analysis Go furtherShe decided to study what happens to valley heat under high-emission climate change scenarios. In other words, if humans continue to emit greenhouse gases as usual, will the disease spread? “Once I did this, I discovered that by the end of the 21st century, most parts of the western United States could become endemic to valley fever,” she said. “Our endemic area may expand northward to the U.S.-Canada border.”

Have reason to believe this Coccus Bridget Barker, a researcher at Northern Arizona University, told Grist that expansion may already be happening. Valley fever has recently broken out in parts of Utah, Washington and northern Arizona. “This is important to us because, yes, it shows that it is happening now,” Buck said. “If we look at the overlap with soil temperature, we do see Coccus It seems to be limited by freezing. Buck is still working to determine what the soil temperature threshold is Coccus Fungus Islands However, in general, more and more Americans may soon have mature conditions Coccus She said proliferation is worrying.

Valley fever may spread to new areas, which will bring a huge economic burden.Goris did it once Separate analysis According to future warming scenarios, it is found that by the end of this century, the average annual total cost of valley fever infection may rise from today’s 3.9 billion U.S. dollars to 18.5 billion U.S. dollars per year.

Goris’ research investigates how and where Coccus It may move as the climate warms. But in this case, what is behind the rise? Coccus Already mature, just like in Ventura, Jesse Merrick’s home was burned down, and it’s still an area of ​​investigation.

Jesse believes that the cause of his contract with Valley Fever is obvious. “I clearly see the correlation between fire and valley heat,” he told Grist.But scientists are not sure what environmental factors are driving Coccus Dissemination, nor is it a public official.

in a December 2018 Announcement, Ventura County Health Officer Robert Levine expressed doubts about the connection between the two Coccus And wildfire. “As a health officer in Ventura County, I think wildfires and Coccus Infection,” he said, noting that only one of the 4,000 firefighters who worked in the Thomas Fire in 2017 was infected with Valley Fever. Jennifer Head, a doctoral student at the University of California, Berkeley, works in a laboratory and studies the effects of wildfires. There is not much evidence for the impact of valley fever to support this connection. “The media often talk about wildfires and valley fever, and it is generally speculated that wildfires will exacerbate valley fever,” she said. But Head can find the closest link between the two The thing is a non-peer-reviewed abstract-a scientific summary-which is not attached to a larger paper.

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