The United Nations Climate Report: Everything is not as good as expected-but not for nothing


United nations today Released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Shocking new report Regarding the state of the climate: 14,000 scientific documents synthesized by hundreds of experts. This is what scientists understand about how humans ignite the earth: how hot it becomes and how hot it will become, how much polar ice is melting, how droughts and storms are worsening, how terrible the road is to look forward—unless we Drastic measures were taken immediately to stop loading the atmosphere with carbon.

Ko Barrett, IPCC Vice Chairman and Senior Advisor, said: “We have known that the world is warming for decades, but this report tells us that the recent climate change is widespread, rapid and intensifying, which is unprecedented in thousands of years. “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States Climate, announced the report at a press conference on Sunday. “The most important thing is that unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced immediately, quickly, and on a large scale, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit will not be achieved.”

This limit is an optimistic goal Paris Climate Agreement: Keep the global average temperature at 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial level, and avoid warming by 2 degrees. The new report states that the temperature has risen by 1.1 degrees, and if the situation does not change, the temperature is expected to reach 1.5 degrees sometime in the early to mid-2030s.

This is an important update Previous IPCC reports Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and director of climate and energy at Breakthrough Institute who was not involved in the report, said that this predicts that the earth will reach the 1.5 milestone around 2040. “Similarly, we exceeded 2 degrees sometime between the early 2040s and the early 2050s. This is the most likely estimate in a high-emission scenario,” he said, referring to the five models modeled in the new report. One of the results.

Why is that half of the degree so important? “There is a big difference between 1.5 and 2” in terms of deterioration drought, Heat wave, storm, flood, Melting ice, and Sea-level riseJanos Pazto, executive director of the Carnegie Climate Governance Initiative and former United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Climate Change, said he was not involved in the report. “Two get worse. And more than two get one very many worse. Of course, we may also move in this direction. “

The report predicts what will happen in five different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: these scenarios envisage the future generation of different levels of carbon, from very low to very high. (In the lowest case, emissions will drop to net zero around 2050 and continue to decline. In the highest case, they will double by that year.) In other words, it is predicted based on the development speed of our civilization The climate looks like decarbonization.

The color-coded graphics accompanying the report also show how global temperature and precipitation rates will change based on the degree of climate warming, and list how many regions of the world have experienced increases in extreme high temperatures, precipitation, and drought. (Hint: almost all of them.)

Illustration: IPCC



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