The shady of selling futures

The prediction of the future is always It surged at the end of the year, but in 2021, something different was added to the usual speculation about gadgets and lifestyles: existential introspection.Amidst Covid-19 variants and rising nationalism, the global economic collapse and the climate crisis, the ever-changing emergencies have exacerbated the feeling that almost everything needs to be overhauled—from food arrive eccentric, marriage arrive gamble, and Ageing arrive music. Uncertainty is the soul of this era, and the future will continue to be popular, which may exacerbate uncertainty.

“Future” itself has become a general slogan. Slack built itself into the future of work and launched its own future forum.From Facebook (now Meta) to Atari to Seoul, everyone announced that Metaverse is coming soon Our realistic future. The university is developing “Futures Committee. ”Governments pledged Sustainable future. This “future” is not so much a specific moment as it is a promotion. Invoking it can be a powerful sign of progress and optimism, it can hone problematic or dull ideas and initiatives, and inspire people to face even the most bleak reality. “What the future provides,” writes German historian Reinhart Koselleck, “is compensation for the suffering of the moment.” But if we accept these visions too easily, then sell them to us. A bright future may prolong suffering. Getting rid of this futuristic fashion requires understanding how we got here today, who profited from it, and how to distinguish a serious future from schlock.

Humans have seen For most of human history, they have surpassed the present, whether expressed as praying for rain or praying for salvation.But use prediction to Develop strategies The future is an idea with only a short past—widespread adoption in the West can be traced back to the 1800s.In her book Looking to the future: the predictions and uncertainties of modern America, Jamie Pietruska explained that in the context of scientific progress and the rise of secularism in the late 19th century, “prediction has become a ubiquitous scientific, economic, and cultural practice”, embodied in things like weather forecasting, fortune-telling, and information about how businesses will grow or shrink. These changes coincide with the rise of modernity, and the impact of social and technological changes continues to plunge advanced societies into the destruction of novelty, progress, and creativity. As the Marxist philosopher Marshall Berman wrote: “To become a modern man is to find yourself in an environment that promises us adventure, strength, joy, growth, the transformation of ourselves and the world —At the same time, it may destroy everything we have. Own, everything we know, everything we have.” He wrote this article in 1982, describing the 19th and 20th centuries, but it is more applicable to Berman The unseen future is our present moment. Endless upheavals can be exciting, confusing, and frightening at the same time. It triggers a desire to understand and control the chaos. The answer to future shocks is future predictions.

But not everyone experiences or imagines the “future” in the same way. The linear journey towards a progressive future is also a historical and cultural construction, especially beneficial to wealthy white men who think that the future is their own. If the future is seen as a resource, then it is mainly plundered and used by a vision. Inequality and injustice limit access to the future, just as they affect land or capital.For example, as a sociologist Luck Nelson It is observed that “the construction of black is always opposed to the chronicle of technology-driven progress.” Taking the dream of a future world without race as an example, this view ignores the disadvantages of racism and the needs of black people and culture. . Other marginalized groups also find themselves bearing the brunt of the impact of a dystopian future, but they are not included in the utopian future. Think about what it means when future technology aims to simply eliminate disability or age, without considering the wishes of the elderly or disabled or what they can obtain. Power affects what changes occur and who benefits from it.

Although the ability to plan for the future is usually a luxury, it is also the core of capitalism, which relies on investment returns, expected returns, and coordination of supply and demand. (Largely, supply chain The current dilemma is that the future cannot be predicted. ) Since the turn of the 20th century, as more and more areas of social life have become areas of speculative economic opportunities, the ways to profit from the future have continued to expand.Company likes WGSN Predict fabrics, silhouettes and fashion moods; think tanks like the Institute of the Future advise on future foundations and non-profit organizations health care or Governance, And cultural trend predictors like Future Lab explain The impact of virtual reality on Gen Z To their Fortune 500 customers. Not to mention (white, male) business giants, such as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, or Mark Zuckerberg, who use exaggerated and selfish declarations to drive the market.

As someone who has been studying professional futurists for many years, the barriers to entry are indeed lowering every day. Because the future is so important, as a futurist, it seems that you only need to claim to be a futurist. On the one hand, the democratization of futurism means more voices, more imagination, and more possibilities-allowing more of us to have more planning capabilities. But when important things like the future are affected by the attention economy, there is also a price to pay, in which hype makes headlines and misinformation squeezes out the truth. This means that we take the stupid ideas of outstanding people more seriously than we should. (Nuclear war on Mars,anyone there? ) This means impractical techniques (e.g. Clothing folding robot) And unpublished research (e.g. this Regarding the spread of Covid) is considered sound and proven. This means that worries about the future will distract us from focusing on the present. This also means that those whose platforms give them the right to speak and be heard about the future are rarely asked to question their assumptions and motives.Take the suffocating predictions about driverless cars as an example Should be everywhere by 2020 But it is still hindered by regulatory, infrastructure and technical issues. When cultural change becomes a product, cheap versions abound, which also threatens our future.

excessive Forecasts may make the world look more certain. Of course, the rapid changes from all corners deserve our attention, action and concern. But it is well known that forecasts are capricious and there is little responsibility for misleading forecasts. (Many well-trained futurists will tell you that they do not make predictions and prefer terms such as prediction, foresight, or alternative futures, but this distinction is too expert for most people to grasp.) Yes To be sure, selling futures is a business that feeds on uncertainty—uncertainty is its true product. Too many futures, too many places, and too many agendas do not invalidate the predicted cause. Instead, they increase confusion and make predictions more necessary. As long as the times feel turbulent, the future will remain fashionable-as long as you can make money, and gain attention by guiding those who feel and are always behind the trend.

This is why everyone must be aware of when it will be used as a universal oil in the future to convince us that this is actually just another marketing plan inevitability. Asking who will benefit from a specific future vision is a good start; the same is true for chasing money.Explaining and creating future predictions is also a good reason for everyone Learn basic future methods Such as scene, environment scan and backtracking.It is also important to support organizations that want to reshape the meaning of the future, including Teach the future Introduce future courses to schools and African continent Give radical black future power. We may not be able to prevent the future from becoming fashionable, but we can make it more according to our own wishes. Our vigilance on the futures sold to us now is essential to ensure that the next generation has a better future. Neil Bozeman calls it “the living message we send to the invisible era.”