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Yes, there is weather in space. The surface of the sun is erupted by gas and plasma, ejecting charged particles (protons, electrons, and heavy ions) into the rest of the solar system at speeds of millions of miles per hour. These particles can hit the earth and the moon in just a few minutes.The geomagnetic field can protect us from them, but the particles can still Electronic equipment and power grid on frying surface And destroy the key satellites that manage GPS and telecommunications services.
For any astronaut flying to the moon or trying to live and work at a lunar outpost, space weather can be extremely dangerous. Life support systems and power sources may shut down, and solar activity may generate life-threatening radiation levels. Owens said: “Between Apollo 16 and 17, there was a huge space weather event. May be fatal If the astronaut was on the moon. ”
Every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic field will change (the north and south poles exchange each other), and solar activity will rise and fall. You might think that it is wiser to launch during the solar minimum radiation period, but this is not the case, because low solar activity usually means more exposure to cosmic rays (radiation from space outside the solar system) in the Milky Way.
In addition, with the passage of time, we have been able to predict that the space weather patterns are related to mild and moderate events, which do not pose much risk to manned missions. However, extreme solar storms (the kind of storms that can truly destroy moon missions) happen randomly. a lot of, Like the infamous 1859 Carrington eventOccurs during periods of seemingly low solar activity. These extreme events are very rare and therefore difficult to study.
In order to strengthen the analysis of the small amount of available data, Owens and his team developed a probabilistic model of extreme space weather based on 150 years of solar activity records. These models simulate extreme storms of different frequencies-one that occurs randomly, the other that increases the likelihood of the solar maximum, and so on.
After thousands of simulations, researchers have enough data to determine which scenario best matches our current understanding of how the sun works. They learned that extreme space weather follows the same general pattern as moderate weather: activity when the sun is at its maximum is higher than when it is at its minimum, and activity when the sun is strong is more likely to occur than when it is weak.
Moreover, there is another very interesting nuclear block that is unique to extreme events: they tend to occur a little later in odd solar cycles than even cycles.
We just started the solar cycle 25 The highest peak of the sun is expected in December 2019. This will be the maximum solar eruption time from 2023 to 2029, so this should be the most annoying time for space weather. “But because this is a peculiar cycle, the possibility of extreme space weather is highest at the end of that window, such as from 2026 to 2029,” Owens said.
The author said that the increased risk makes it unsafe to perform moon landing missions during this period. “We don’t predict when a single event will occur,” Owens said. “Therefore, the best advice we can provide is the possibility of extreme events.” If the launch must be postponed to 2026, it may be more desirable to postpone it further to 2030. Otherwise, mission planners should ensure that the spacecraft has the correct hardware to protect the astronauts from extreme events.
After all, once we know that a severe solar storm is about to happen, it’s as if we can’t bring the astronauts back from the moon in time.Currently, our best early warning system for space weather makes us aware of A few hours to a few days-These predictions are even worse for predicting catastrophic storms.
Dan Baker, a space physics researcher at the University of Colorado at Boulder, believes that this research has performed well and emphasized that “this type of research should be taken seriously and should be included in the scope of research.” [mission] planning. “But he is not entirely convinced that the statistics from this survey should be used as recommendations to scrub any lunar missions between 2026 and 2029,” he said. “However, I think that prudent steps can be taken to prevent the effects of such harsh space weather. I believe that with an active and effective space weather warning and early warning system, the threat can be kept within a controllable range.” If there is one The early warning space weather system can observe the entire sun 24/7, and there are spacecraft or lunar outpost modules that can specifically protect astronauts from such events, the risk may be tolerable.
Although extreme events may be rare, they may mean the difference between life and death when performing a lunar mission. Whether NASA and others are willing to take this risk remains to be seen.
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