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Nevertheless, attribution scientists have taken many measures to avoid exaggerating the importance of climate change to specific events. They look at multiple data from multiple sources and often use mathematical tools that are more likely to underestimate rather than overestimate the effects of climate change. There is good reason for this: trust is an invaluable currency in a field that focuses on communicating with the public, says Leo Barasi, a public opinion and climate change expert who works with researchers and activists. Publicly communicating negative results can also highlight the importance and surprising degree of positive results. “Openly, openly and proudly talk about” negative results are really important, Barasi said.
Although it is difficult to determine the extent to which the attribution of extreme events has changed public sentiment about the climate crisis, Barasi believes it has played an important role. In 2018, people across the northern hemisphere experienced intense heat. A lot of learn It was found that climate change makes these heat waves more likely.exist Japan, If there is no impact of climate change, these temperatures are almost impossible, according to one learnAt the same time, public discourse has undergone a significant shift-whether in we and UKAccording to public opinion surveys, concerns about climate change rose at the end of 2018.Although this period also coincides Greta Thunberg On the international stage, Barasi believes that extreme weather may also contribute. “The first-hand experience of this extreme weather event, coupled with the widely accepted and credible science surrounding it, I think is very important,” he said.
Most of the power attributable to extreme events comes from its ability to resolve people’s first-hand experience of a particular heat wave or flood—their hyperlocality. But this also has its disadvantages. Rup Singer, a climate risk consultant at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, said most attribution studies look at events in the north of the world. “Of course, scientists have their own interests, they are interested in what is happening in their backyard,” she said.
But extreme weather may have the most terrible impact on the areas that receive the least attention. “There are communities in the world that rely more directly on natural resources, and they are more susceptible to weather and climate conditions,” Deepti Singh said. These disproportionate influences have inspired Singh to conduct research, focusing on her native India, where the poor rural population is particularly vulnerable.
Mitigating climate change is important to alleviate these effects-but addressing other factors that cause these effects, such as poverty and underdevelopment, is more likely to play a key role in saving lives and livelihoods. “For example, the heatwave is so deadly because as a society, we don’t care about the poor who live in bad housing and have underlying health problems,” Otto said. “This in itself is not because of climate change.”
These effects depend on structural issues, not to mention many accidental factors—for example, heat waves are more deadly in retirement communities than college towns. Therefore, it is difficult to link climate change with the most important specific impacts on people. But scientists have already begun to make progress. Recently, for example, Diffenbaugh Published a study Link climate change to the financial costs of crop production declines.other Study this year The conclusion is that, worldwide, 37% of high-temperature-related deaths can be attributed to climate change.
“The impact occurred because of the background of the disaster,” Roop Singh said. “The attribution of extreme events has started a conversation. But in order for us to truly answer these questions, we actually need to do more scientific work.”
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