Climate change may make hurricanes come earlier and last longer


In their research, Ghana and colleagues compared where the storm formed, how fast it moved, and where it ended. Comparing data from the pre-industrial era with simulated data at the end of the 21st century, the study found that tropical storms are 15% more likely to begin life near the southeastern coast of the United States. Under the model simulation, the storm is more likely to travel within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of Boston and Norfolk, rather than toward New York City.

But Garner said that the result does not mean that New Yorkers can breathe easily. Although the analysis shows that the average storm may stay longer in the sea, any single storm still poses a risk to the area. She said that these future superstorms will move fast at sea, covering more territory, until they hit land and slow down. This means they can log in faster. “One effect we see is that it takes less time to travel within 100 kilometers of these cities,” she said.

In addition, the team’s analysis found that there will be more storms on the east coast, and because storms move more slowly, they will generate stronger winds and cause more water damage to homes and businesses. In fact, the longest hurricane lasted twice as long as today’s storm. “Norfolk saw the biggest impact of the duration of the storm, but all three cities saw the impact, which would make people think about how they can prepare for these events in the future,” Ghana continued.

Hurricanes require warm water to survive, and once they cross the northern border, most of them tend to die. Gulf Stream, A wide, fast-moving ocean current that carries warm tropical water from the Gulf of Mexico to southern Florida, along Cape Hatteras and North Carolina, and then across the Atlantic Ocean to Europe. According to a paper published in World magazine last year, the two most recent hurricanes, namely Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016, were so powerful that they were actually within a few weeks Reduce the current hurricane speed by 50%. Journal of marine systems.

The author of the study, TalqianProfessor of Earth and Marine Sciences at Norfolk Old Dominion University believes that if future hurricanes also change direction and speed, they may cause greater damage to the Gulf Stream. Ezer said that this new study is a reasonable analysis of possible future ocean systems. “If these hurricanes can really change the trajectory, it may have a significant impact on the Gulf Stream and ocean circulation,” he said. This is important because the Gulf Stream helps moderate temperatures in England and Southern Europe, and if it slows down or stops, the temperature will be much lower.

In the United States, the coastline was hit by 19 tropical storms. These tropical storms Disasters worth billions of dollars between 2010 and 2020, A total loss of 480 billion U.S. dollars, adjusted for inflation. Slow-moving storms may cause greater costs, which worries some state and local officials.The area of ​​Norfolk, Virginia and surrounding Hampton Roads is home to the world’s largest naval base, and rising sea levels have caused daytime flood In the past 15 years, in many communities.


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