The path to the majority government needs to go beyond Quebec

New large sample poll puts the federal battlefield into focus

Toronto, June 10, 2021 /CNW/-A new national poll by Counsel Public Affairs found that the Liberal Party Canada Continue to lead (Liberal Party 31.9%, Conservative Party 27.6%, New Democratic Party 17.9%, Green Party 6.9%, Quebec Group 7.7% and People’s Party Canada 4.2%). In addition to the top-line numbers, the true story about the next election is buried deep in detailed district and problem results.

This new poll comes from Counsel Public Affairs’ new national polling practice, Legal advisory research, Led by David Murray, Conservative Party Canadian Election pollsters in 2019. Counsel Research’s large sample poll (this survey involved 3,175 Canadians) has a deeper understanding of the views of key groups of Canadians than a typical poll.

“in spite of Canadian The political parties will claim that the only important polls are the polls on election day, and they all follow the detailed cross-tabulations in polls like ours very closely to inform them of their strategic decisions,” said David Murray, Senior Counsel, Federal Advocacy and Legal Counsel. “What these numbers tell me is that the road to most governments requires more than just a successful end to the pandemic. These numbers will have to move on key battlefields such as the Lower Mainland of British Columbia and the Hamilton area of ​​Greater Toronto, because in Quebec, No federal party has received attention. ”

The poll was conducted June 1, 2021 to June 4, 2021.

The main findings and analysis include:

Quebec spoiler: The Quebec group may prevent the majority of the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party or the New Democratic Party from achieving a breakthrough.

  • The Liberal Party (34%) and the Group (33%) go hand in hand in the province Quebec The Conservative Party (14%) and the New Democratic Party (10%) are seriously behind.
  • Quebec Group has increased its support for regions with abundant seats outside the region Montreal with Quebec City, Hindering the growth of liberalism QuebecIn these key areas, only 8% of voters think they are accessible, that is, they are willing to consider voting for the Conservative Party.
  • Although the party gained official opposition status in 2011, Quebec Still new democratic party Canadian The weakest link. The New Democratic Party is not only in 4day Only 10% of the seats are held in the province, but there are very few potential New Democratic Party swing voters.

Ontario: The Liberal Party leads, but has considerable potential in the three competitions

  • In the province, the Liberal Party leads (38%), followed by the Conservative Party (28%), the New Democratic Party (19%), the Green Party (9%) and the People’s Party (5%)
  • in TorontoThe Liberal Party leads by 20%, but this level is nearly 8 percentage points lower than their support rate in the 2019 general election, which is beneficial to the third-ranked New Democratic Party.
  • In the Greater Toronto Hamilton area, the Liberal and Conservative parties have both lost support for the New Democrats and created more tripartite elections. Split voting may make a major difference between who wins and who loses. Canadian The region with the most votes.

Growth potential for all parties

  • comprehensive, Canadian The New Democratic Party has the greatest growth potential, with 24% of voters expressing their willingness to vote for that party, even if their current intentions depend on the other party. 16% of voters hold the same view of the Liberal Party, and 13% hold the same view of the Conservative Party.
  • In the prairie, 10% of people voted for Andrew Sher The Conservative Party stated that they now intend to vote for the People’s Party Canada, A maverick party, or “the other party.”Unless the Conservative Party turns the tide, their seats on the grasslands in several cities, including horse riding Edmonton with Calgary, There may be risks.
  • For the Liberal Party, the next level of voters is concentrated in British Columbia (Especially outside Vancouver), Manitoba, Northeast Ontario, with Atlantic Canada.
  • It is worth noting that public sector union workers and ethnic minorities remain the most powerful demographics for the Liberal Party to seek to expand the electorate base.
  • Voters between the ages of 18 and 34 represent swing voters who are more concentrated than any other age group, which increases the likelihood that their issues will become the focus during the next election.

Fast election?Mixed feelings

  • Less than half of Canadians hope to hold a general election before 2022.
  • Conservative supporters and their easily accessible swing voters are one of the people most eager for early elections, with two-thirds of people expressing their hope to vote before the end of the year.
  • Currently, less than 30% of Liberal Party supporters and approachable swing voters hope for the fall election.
  • 47% of New Democratic Party supporters and 30% of Quebec Group supporters hope to hold elections before 2022.

The full summary of the findings and analysis from the Counsel poll can be found at

Lawyers investigated 3,175 people during this period June 1Yingshi —— June 4day Use the Lucid Exchange platform in 2021, which integrates various partner groups. The margin of error for comparable probability-based random samples of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 out of 20.

The results are weighted by the following areas:

  • According to the 2016 census of age and gender at birth.
  • The 2019 federal vote.

About Legal Counsel Public Affairs
Lawyer is one of them Canadian The most respected and fastest-growing national independent government relations and strategic communications company. Its consultants are in Ottawa, Toronto, Regina, Calgary, Vancouver with Victoria. For more information about legal counsel public affairs, please visit

SOURCE Counsel Public Affairs Inc.

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