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Although Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power to this day, allegations of corruption and his repeated failure to establish a stable and reliable coalition government seem to herald the end of his rule.
However, analysts say that the recent conflict with the Palestinians may open another path for Netanyahu and his quest to continue as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.
The Israeli leader and his Likud party failed to form a ruling coalition, and President Rouven Rivlin took on the task Opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yair Lapid) Form your own government
Micheline Ishay, director of the Human Rights Program at the University of Denver, said that even before the election, Netanyahu lost the support of the Israeli people for various reasons.
Netanyahu’s reputation has declined, and people are tired of the uncertainty of the election. The number of seats in the Likud Group has been reduced from 36 in March 2020 to 30 in March 2021. “Netanyahu’s tireless efforts to avoid prosecution, the division of right-wing parties and the ongoing epidemic have led to widespread divisions.”
She added that the conflict with the Palestinians has reduced public dissatisfaction with Netanyahu.
“With the escalation of the situation in Gaza, his reputation will undoubtedly rise among some citizens. Under fire and war situations, people tend to gather in the current government, worrying about rockets and internal threats. In this sense, the current The crisis is strengthening Netanyahu’s political design.”
“Planned for confiscation”
Despite this, Yishai said that despite the obvious connection to violence against the Palestinians, she does not believe that Netanyahu supports the conflict out of political considerations.
“Netanyahu passed by even allowing domestic provocations Cahanists In Jerusalem, planned confiscation of Arab property Sheikh Jarrah, Fencing from Damascus Gate during Ramadan, and Aksa Police Operation.
“However, it is not clear whether he will anticipate Hamas’ response, let alone hope. Regardless of the intentions, the war will benefit Hamas and Likud at least in the short term.”
However, in the past, it was not just conflicts, but Netanyahu’s conflicts may have shifted to public perceptions.
First, as Yesh Atid hopes, the broad coalition against Netanyahu is more uncertain than ever Naftali Bennett Said that his Arminian party would stop talks with Rapide and instead seek a broader unified government with Netanyahu and Likud. Bennett believes that this is in the country’s interest in times of crisis.
The sudden reconciliation between Netanyahu and Bennett may be surprising, but it makes sense politically.
Yishai said, after all, both Netanyahu and Bennett have an ideology, and they both advocate unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank, but this is beneficial to the prime minister.
Ishay said: “By prioritizing his own awareness of the threat of a country with political differences with Netanyahu, Bennett can revive the Likud alliance and greatly weaken any anti-Netanyahu group.”
However, Bennett is also aware of how the current crisis affects the negotiation, and the negotiation has progressed to the point where the “Replacement group“.
In order to obtain the necessary majority, the coalition needs to include the votes of Palestinian citizens of Israel in the Knesset. Given the turmoil between Israeli Jews and Israeli Palestinian citizens, this situation is unimaginable, and both Arab parties are in a position where they cannot support the Israeli government, which includes right-wing forces.
The main example is Mansour AbbasThe leader of the United Arab Emirates (UAL), he agreed to support the Lapid and Bennett governments. However, considering the armed conflict in Gaza, UAL withdrew from the joint negotiations.
Yishai pointed out that Bennett’s call for the deployment of Israeli troops in areas where Palestinians live in Israel prevented the United Arab List (also known as Ram) from supporting this policy.
“Bennet clearly suggested that the Israeli Defense Forces’ actions in the Gaza Strip and police enforcement of the Palestinian unrest cannot be guided by governments including the United Arab List. This shows that Arab Israelis can never become a government unless in peacetime. Part of it,” she said.
“Strategic Importance”
Ian Lustick, dean of the Department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, told Al Jazeera that Bennett’s move could become a key issue for Netanyahu’s progress.
“Although it is possible to conceive of a Likud-Bennet government supported by Ram, I think it is extremely unlikely. However, the strategic importance of Arab parties in the alliance negotiations still exists.”
“Although Netanyahu may want to directly elect the prime minister, depending on how the election is organized, it may also give the joint list and Ram have bargaining power on the issue of whether they will run for prime minister or stand together. .”
Lustick said that at the same time, Bennett’s decision to resume talks with Netanyahu may help Likud move forward, and it will come at a price for Bennett.
“This opens up the possibility for Likud to absorb elements from Bennett Yamina. If he insists on Lapid, he is ready to abandon him. Even if Bennett holds a prestigious position in the future Netanyahu government , His political reputation for independence and integrity will also be severely hit.”
At the same time, Lapid was unwilling to succumb to a desperate situation.
“Bennett was wrong,” said Rapide, who promised to turn every stone into a government without Netanyahu. He added that it is not worthwhile to cooperate with those responsible for the current situation. But his determination is unlikely to make a difference.
“The fragile unity is destroyed”
Lucek said that for Netanyahu, the conflict in Gaza provided him with another opportunity.
Netanyahu is on the verge of losing his prime ministerial position held by an unlikely coalition. However, this crisis was caused in part by Israel’s deliberate and highly provocative actions in Jerusalem, which undermined the fragile unity of the alliance. “
Although Netanyahu does not have his own majority in Bennett, and at least does not have an Arab political party, in fact, Bennett’s betrayal has led to a situation where a government cannot be formed against the current prime minister. Lustic said this makes it more likely that the fifth election will be held in the fall.
“Although Bennett betrayed Netanyahu for not producing a new Likud-led government, it can and will likely lead to new elections.”
During an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, smoke and flames rose above the buildings [Mohammed Salem/Reuters]
Indeed, both Ishay and Lustick agreed to the idea of holding the fifth election in two and a half years.
“At this juncture, the fifth election is still inevitable. The Likud may form a short-term alliance, but after this round of violence, their political power will eventually decrease.”
“On the other hand, the anti-Netanyahu group did not share enough common issues except for the removal of the current leader to maintain the new alliance. It can only hope that the flu pandemic, repeated elections and the current war will ultimately promote peace. Negotiations. A government willing to seriously resolve the Palestinian issue will have greater endurance.”
“Dynamic Situation”
Lustick shared this assessment.
“If Lapid fails, then the Knesset itself will have a chance to form a government. That will almost certainly fail.”
However, he also admitted that the situation has become more unpredictable.
“The question is what kind of elections will be held: Knesset elections, prime minister elections, or both? The uncertainties and complex calculations associated with the dynamic situation we are entering, and the relative Arab participation in coalition negotiations Newer phenomena provide interesting and unpredictable possibilities for the consequences of these elections,” Lustick said.
However, Luced said that the impact of the conflict is more far-reaching. With or without voting rights, Palestinians from river to sea are part of Israel’s political system.
He said: “Whether it is through voting, joint bargaining, political mobilization, protest or violence, their impact on this system will grow.”
Whether Netanyahu is willing to achieve his goals, whether he likes it or not, must take this dynamic into consideration.
Analysts say that at the same time, whether it is now or in the fifth election that a new coalition can be promoted, the prospects for Netanyahu to become prime minister are definitely increasing.
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