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Shenzhen, China– On a sultry June afternoon, in a quiet corner of Lianhuashan Park in the center of Shenzhen, China’s high-tech demonstration city, 25-year-old Mr. Ling was engaged in an apparently low-tech activity to browse advertisements for potential partners.
Grouped by birth year, men get light blue cards and women get light pink cards. In the circular “matching corner” structure built by the city government, hundreds of wires hang stiff and unhumane cards, and the city government office is within easy reach.
Like many young men and women who do not have formal residency rights in Shenzhen, Ling faces very little chance of finding a wife, starting a family, and staying in Shenzhen for a long time—even if he is more willing to take these courses.
“The biggest problem is work, enough money and a house,” he said. “I have a few friends who used to work in Shenzhen, but now they have moved to other areas. The cost of living has put too much pressure on them.”
Ling’s hukou-China’s internal household registration system-connects most of his health and social insurance and the education of his future children to a rural village in northern Shandong Province, where he was born.
Ling, who does not want to use his full name to protect his privacy, is a real estate agent. But this job has little need other than answering the phone and escorting potential buyers to the property, and there is almost no opportunity for upward mobility.
As China begins to allow couples to have up to three children, it has become increasingly obvious that the government needs to address the needs and concerns of people like Ling who want to start a family but are under pressure due to lack of education, cost of living and barriers to mobility, such as hukou. System-China’s real life prevents many working couples from considering the idea of having more than one child, let alone two or three.
“How do we take care of nine people?”
An online survey circulated in China in early May found that slightly more than half of young people do not want to have a child, let alone a second or third child.
One reason is the cost of buying a house. Most men feel that they need to own property before they propose, so this is a major pre-marital obstacle for a man and his extended family, which usually helps pay for the first house. Other issues include worries about who will take care of the children, the high cost of education and extracurricular programs, the point system that determines whether children can enter local schools in first- and second-tier cities, and people who change their minds. Young people who want to pursue personal dreams instead of building a family.
Women who bear most of the responsibilities of parenting are becoming increasingly reluctant to have a second child after being exhausted from taking care of their first child.
A few hours after China announced the implementation of the three-child policy on the last day of May, a sentence circulated on Chinese social media was a couple who said: “We already have to take care of a family of eight. How do we take care of it? Take care of nine? “
Translation: Working-age couples in China usually need to take care of themselves, as well as two parents who don’t have much savings or pension plan income, and the children they already have.
Although the parents of these workers usually help with the family and childcare, the costs associated with health care—and the cost of raising children—are a huge burden as they grow older.
By 2020, China’s fertility rate will slow to 1.3 children per woman, and unless the Beijing authorities ease the pressure on working families, it is likely to stay near that level. Although these authorities said they are working to improve policies related to maternity leave and insurance, as well as to strengthen tax and housing policy support, most working parents in China have no hope.
The government benefits introduced after China relaxed its one-child policy in 2015 failed to significantly reduce the financial burden and increase the birth rate [File: Akio Kon/Bloomberg]
The benefits introduced after the relaxation of the one-child policy in 2015 failed to significantly reduce the burden and increase the birth rate.
Chang Qingsong, an associate professor at the Institute of Population Research at Xiamen University, believes that the government should go a step further and completely remove restrictions so that families can decide whether to have children.
He told Al Jazeera: “The Chinese government can relax the limit on the number of children a family can have, and maximize support for families that have the ability and conditions to have more children.”
“Instead of stipulating how many children they can have, the government needs to reduce the burden on families to increase their willingness to have children,” he said. “It is foreseeable that even if couples are allowed to have a third child, most couples will not.”
Move the needle
Su Yue, chief economist of the World Economic Research Center, pointed out in a report that the current birth rate decline or stagnation may not be so important, but as China’s population ages rapidly, as the labor force shrinks 15 years from now, economic growth is likely Will be hit. The Economist Intelligence Unit.
She wrote that the new three-child policy may also have further short-term negative effects on women. The company assumes that women want more children and may choose to hire men to avoid childbirth costs and working hours.
A drop or stagnation in the birth rate may not mean anything at this time, but as China’s population ages rapidly, and as the labor force shrinks 15 years from now, economic growth may be hit. [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]
Ashton Verdery, associate professor of sociology and demography at Pennsylvania State University, said that the three-child policy seems to be more of a response to recent census data, which shows that China’s population is rapidly aging and is Rapidly approaching the population peak. , But detailed policies to try to resolve the pressure may be introduced later.
He told Al Jazeera: “I wouldn’t be surprised if they turn to some kind of special credits that people get for having more children or other policies that alleviate the challenge of having more children.”
For example, according to reports, the Chinese authorities have encouraged some areas to try out parental leave programs.
He said: “I can imagine that China may build more housing suitable for large families and the like.” “The Chinese government is much more involved in the economy, so it may make a difference.”
For Scott Rozelle, a development economist and co-director of the Stanford University Rural Education Action Plan, China’s population problem is not so much a quantity problem as it is a quality problem.
The main reason for the low quality of the labor force is China’s failure to provide high school education for all young people, especially in rural areas.
Studies have shown that early signs of a decline in the birth rate mainly come from rural areas in China, mainly because women there believe that their families cannot feed more than one or two children. [File: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]
If the education level of rural children is not improved, and the rural hukou holders who have not completed high school are not re-educated, just having more children will not solve China’s imminent labor problem, nor will it prevent it from falling into the middle level. Income traps, such as Mexico or Brazil.
“In this post-industrial era, the quality of people is really important,” Rozelle said. “If you don’t have a high school education, you won’t be able to sell well online, and you won’t be able to start a business.”
Recent research conducted by Rozelle shows that early signs of the decline in birth rates are mainly from rural areas in China, mainly because women there believe that their families cannot feed more than one or two children.
“My assumption is that the major decline in fertility rates in the past 10 years has come from rural China,” he told Al Jazeera. “Now, women have more decision-making power over key decisions such as family size.”
China is currently implementing major policies for rural revitalization across the country, but most of them focus on agriculture and infrastructure projects rather than education, health, and social welfare.
Rozelle said that surveys of rural households over the years have found that although they appreciate many infrastructure upgrades, for most people, the priority comes down to one thing: education.
“It’s coming, we don’t need a lot of labor to run our society, what we need is high-quality labor,” Rozelle said. “So does rural revitalization need to include education? Absolutely.”
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