The arrival of immigrants sparked the demographic debate in Southern Europe

The leader of the Italian far-right coalition, Matteo Salvini, quickly praised the government’s decision led by the Spanish Socialist Party. Dispatch troops When thousands of immigrants entered its territory.

“Spain is defending its borders,” Salvini said of this month’s scene in the Spanish enclave Ceuta in North Africa, where soldiers were deployed to deny the arrival of mainly Moroccans. “Now it’s our turn.”

He tried to contrast with the Italian island outpost Lampedusa, one of the main destinations for ships crossing the Mediterranean from North Africa, and more than 1,000 undocumented immigrants arrived here within 24 hours this month.

Although the situation in Lampedusa is very different from that of Ceuta, Ceuta’s Spain-Morocco agreement allows most people who cross the border to return quickly, but Spain and Italy face very similar immigration dilemmas.

They are currently the two main front-line countries for EU immigrants crossing the Mediterranean: 42,000 people arrived in Spain last year. International Organization for Migration, Compared with 34,000 in Italy and 15,000 in Greece.

Italy and Spain are also facing severe challenges brought about by the rapid aging of their populations.

In fact, just two days after mobilizing the Spanish army to help shut down Ceuta against undocumented immigrants, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez published a study that showed Spain’s dependence on mass immigration for decades to come.

paper, Spain 2050Scholars and analysts believe that even if the country maintains a net immigration of 191,000 people per year for the next 30 years-slightly lower than the recent historical average-its working-age population will be from its current level. Approximately 31m.

It acknowledged that this decline may reduce the size of the economy and put pressure on the country’s welfare state.

In contrast, the document states that if the number of net immigrants increases, that is, 255,000 people per year, the reduction in available labor force will be halved, and it will fall to 1.8 million people by 2050.

Diego Rubio, the official who coordinated the report, insisted that the government’s position was not contradictory. “Fighting against illegal immigration at our border and promoting legal immigration to our towns are completely compatible,” he said.

He continued: “Spain is open to those seeking a better future because it is a country with a sense of solidarity. It knows that we need people from abroad to combat population decline and guarantee the country’s prosperity and prosperity in the medium and long term. Well-being.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted on Thursday that by 2050, Spain will become the member country with the highest elderly dependency ratio, that is, the proportion of people over 65 to the working-age population, second only to Japan and South Korea.

Compared with other European countries, Spain still has fewer concerns about immigration.According to the most recent Eurobarometer poll, Less than one-third of Spaniards believe that immigration is one of the main challenges facing the EU, which is lower than the EU-wide average of 44%.

However, with the emergence of the far-right Vox party, this issue has become more sensitive. The party even criticized illegal immigrants in regional elections and condemned the government’s handling of the Ceuta invasion. Spain 2050 Documentation. Santiago Abascal, head of Vox, described the proposal as a “replacement [Spanish] population”.

If the rise of Vox makes Spain’s immigration discussions more controversial, then the debate in Italy, where the Salvini League leads the polls, is even more worrying.

Partly due to recent low immigration rates, Italy’s demographic problems Even more serious Than Spanish. Last year, the country’s population dropped by nearly 400,000 people — the equivalent of losing the entire population of Florence — the largest drop in more than a century.

But mainstream politicians are generally unwilling to suggest increasing immigration as a solution.

Instead, Salvini and other anti-immigration leaders called for an increase in the birth rate. Three years ago, when Tito Boeri, the head of the Italian pension system, suggested that the country needs more legal immigration, Salvini, the then interior minister, accused him of “living on Mars. on”. Soon after, Boeri was replaced.

Now, as better weather increases the likelihood of more migrant ships crossing the Mediterranean, this issue is once again on the political agenda.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced plans to work closely with the governments of Libya and Tunisia to reduce illegal immigrants and redistribute migrants among EU member states.

He vowed to pursue a “humane” policy, that is, “no one will be left alone in Italian waters.” However, it is believed that 130 migrants drowned on the coast of Libya last month-Pope Francis condemned the tragedy as a “moment of shame”.

Both Salvini and Georgia Meloni, the leader of the Italian right-wing fraternal party, condemned the recent surge in the number of people from Libya to islands such as Sicily and Lampedusa.

Some activists say that such anti-immigration policies are setting the agenda. “This is a very important issue for politicians because it has a great impact on voters,” said Marta Bernardini of Mediterranean Hope, a non-governmental organization working in Lampedusa. .

“Left-wing parties are afraid of populism, and at this moment they have not put forward a clear vision for immigration policy,” she said.

Despite this tension, Mariona Lozano, a researcher at the Barcelona Population Research Center, believes that, at least for Spain, the influx of recent years will continue.

“Immigration responds to economic pressure,” she said. “The vast majority Foreign born Spaniards come from America and Europe, but immigrants from North Africa are the oldest route and will not stop. ”