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© Reuters. File photo: January 23, 2020, the European Central Bank (ECB) logo in Frankfurt, Germany. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski
Julien Ponthus looks forward to the day ahead.
It is now very likely that those who were born in the Eurozone in 2011 will not see interest rate hikes until their teens (imagine FOMO!).
In fact, the European Central Bank said on Thursday that it will not raise borrowing costs until inflation reaches its 2% target.
And since it only predicts that prices will rise by 1.4% in 2023, the first interest rate hike since the debt crisis is not expected to be reached by the “T Generation” (former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet) before 2024 Teenage age.
To be honest, before the European Central Bank met with Paul Donovan, chief economist of UBS Great Wall Bank, expectations were low. He sarcastically wrote that the market would be eager to know how the European Central Bank intends to miss its new goal this time.
Negative interest rates, trillions of euros worth of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, labor shortages, production bottlenecks, global shipping container shortages, rising commodity and oil prices, and the outlook for inflation remain bleak.
Now, as more and more people worry that the Delta variant may slow the pace of recovery, investors find themselves paying a 10-year German bond with a yield of -0.41% and close to the lowest level since February.
A series of business activity surveys expected to be released on Friday will show a slight slowdown in European activity. This may put pressure on the euro, which fell after the European Central Bank meeting and is currently trading at $1.1773-not far from the recent three-month low.
It is expected that before the Fed meeting next week, attention will shift to the United States.
Thursday’s news about the unexpected increase in the number of American workers applying for unemployment benefits for the first time did not derail Wall Street. The three major stock indexes on Wall Street closed within 1% of their record closing highs.
Asian stock markets fell overnight, but European and US futures were higher, which means that the losses during the delta variant sell-off on Monday have been made up.
Friday should provide the market with major developments in more directions:
-British consumers regain their pre-pandemic confidence
-POLL-S.Korea may achieve its largest annual growth since 2010 in the second quarter
-UK retail sales in June
-July Purchasing Managers Index: France, Germany, Sweden, Eurozone, United Kingdom
-As Europe resumes growth, Vodafone (NASDAQ:) revenue in the first quarter increased by 3.3% [nL8N2OZ1CU)
– Eyeing IPO, Geely’s Volvo Cars swings to profit in H1
– Russia tipped to hiked rates.
Graphic: Benchmark German 10-year yield – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mopanmkeeva/Pasted%20image%201627023030561.png
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