Raisi’s victory secured control of Iranian hardliners

When Ebrahim Raisi ran for Iran’s president for the first time in 2017, the somber conservative clergyman lost miserably and failed to win the aspiring voters who hoped that the republic’s nuclear deal would open up the country.

Four years later, the collapse of the 2015 agreement signed between Iran and the world powers, the growing economic crisis triggered by US sanctions, the disillusionment of voters, and the regime’s determination to bring hardliners back to power have paved the way for his governance. Election victory 62% of the votes.

But for many people in the Republic and abroad, his victory bears the mark of disastrous defeat.

More than half of voters chose not to vote, and reformers called this a rare act of civil disobedience. The 48.8% turnout rate is the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic, with 3.7 million people choosing to sabotage their votes, more than any rival who voted for Raisi.

“The message of the election is that the dissidents are much more powerful than Reisi’s supporters,” said reformist activist Hossein Yazdi.

Many people far away from polling stations believe that after the authorities banned major reformists from running for election, the result is destined. It is generally believed that Minister of Justice Raisi has the support of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the hardliners used elections for the first time in nearly a decade to regain control of all important sectors of the country.

Analysts said that Raisi’s victory increased his chances of succeeding Khamenei, who was 82 years old, as the supreme leader after his death. But the premise is that he can meet the challenges he inherited-the economy has been hit by sanctions and the coronavirus, and a polarized society vulnerable to turmoil.

His supporters hope that he will end the factional strife that undermined the regime during President Hasan Rouhani’s second and final term, which will end in August. Unity within the theocracy with competing power centers and smooth succession were considered Khamenei’s priorities. As the republic experienced the most turbulent period since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, these goals became more urgent.

“One country, one team, one goal” is one of Lai Xi’s campaign slogans.

“I trust Raisi because he is 100% aligned with the leadership,” said a regime insider. “The parliament, the leadership, the judiciary-they will all be consistent and perform better.”

The catalyst for Iran’s recent malaise was Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the nuclear agreement. He imposed severe sanctions on the Republic and individuals including Lai Xi, stifling Iran’s ability to export oil and plunged it into recession.

The turmoil inspired hardliners and shattered the dream of the 24 million Iranians who voted for Rouhani in 2017, hoping that the nuclear agreement will bring about change and prosperity.

Their disillusionment fell into Raisi’s hands. His conservative voters heed the call of his leader to vote, while the reformists stayed at home.

Therefore, although he has won an overwhelming victory in technology, he faces severe challenges without the strong public authorization of his predecessor.

“Raisi entered a game he would lose. From the public’s perspective, his victory is predetermined, right or wrong,” said a reformist analyst. “It makes people very angry.”

Others worry that hardliners will seek to further marginalize and oppress pro-democracy activists.

“There is no doubt that democrats will be suppressed,” said activist Yazidi.

For a long time, people have been worried about Raisi’s human rights record. Now Tehran is negotiating with world powers to reach an agreement to allow the United States to return to the nuclear agreement and lift sanctions, which may damage his credibility at home and abroad.

President Joe Biden stated that if Iran fully complies with the agreement, he will rejoin the agreement. But the new government will be led by a man who was accused by the Trump administration of overseeing executions, “torture and other inhuman treatment of prisoners” when it imposed sanctions on Raisi in 2019.

He was alleged to have been involved in the execution of thousands of political prisoners while serving as the national prosecutor in the late 1980s. He did not comment on that period.

Five years ago, when Khamenei appointed him as the guardian of the Imam Reza Temple in his hometown of Mashhad, Raisi’s path to promotion became obvious, a powerful position responsible for overseeing Iran’s holiest site. .

After Khamenei appointed him as the head of the judiciary, one of the main centers of hardline power, in 2019, he used this position to launch an anti-corruption campaign, which won him applause, even among some of his critics. The same is true in China. However, others believe that this move is his reactivation of political ambitions.

During the campaign, he provided few policy details, but said that domestic issues were his top priority. He tried to attract Iranians suffering from economic difficulties, sometimes referring to his own humble growth experience.

“Not only do I know poverty, I have also tasted poverty,” he repeated.

He only briefly mentioned foreign policy, and few expected major changes, whether it be Iran’s hostile relationship with the United States, support for regional militant groups, or expansion of its missile program.

Unlike Rouhani, Raisi has almost no overseas exposure, and Khamenei makes regional policies and major security decisions.

Analysts added that he may not be so aggressive compared to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s last tough president. His first tenure was characterized by long talks directed at the United States and Israel, and costly populist domestic policies that caused economic chaos.

But even conservatives admit that Raisi faces a daunting task.

“Raisi’s terminology is similar to that of Ahmadi-Nejad and Rouhani, it’s not impossible [chaotic last years],” said conservative analyst Mohammad Mohajeri. “Iran’s political ship is crumbling. “