Minutes of the Fed and European Central Bank meetings and all those concerned about China’s inflation Reuters

(Reuters)-Minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as the latest inflation data from China-The following is a quick overview of the main economic events and topics that Reuters will report next week.

United States

As far as economic reports are concerned, the week after the US employment report is usually one of the weakest weeks of the month, and next week is no exception.

In other words, there is a major event this week that may cause market shock: the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, when officials debated how to end bond purchases during the crisis, and hinted that interest rate hikes are closer to the horizon than before.

Readings from the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 2pm Eastern Time (1800 GMT) on Wednesday will reveal the depth of disagreement among 18 policymakers as they are close to monetary policy Key turning point. The world’s largest-and now booming-economy. Four signs of what to look for:

Inflation: With inflation surpassing the Fed’s 2% target, how much tolerance do officials have for this overshoot?

Employment: Will some policymakers implement theories that are unlikely to fully return to the pre-COVID employment levels, thus raising questions about their “maximum employment” goals?

Bond cone: The cone debate is in full swing. Questions include when and how quickly they will begin withdrawing the monthly purchases of US$80 billion in US Treasury bonds and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities.

Interest rates: Is the debate moving in an earlier direction? The forecast of FOMC members at the June meeting will advance the expected median value of the first interest rate hike from 2024 to 2023, and most members believe that the first interest rate hike will be in 2022.

Europe

In Europe, as hotel bookings are well below pre-pandemic levels, concerns about the impact of the novel coronavirus variant on summer tourism-vital to southern economies such as Portugal, Greece, Italy and Spain-will be next week Continue to dominate.

On Tuesday, the Office of Budget Responsibility, the UK’s financial supervisory agency, released an annual report on the future risks of public finances. This year, it focuses on the damage caused by COVID-19, climate change, and the impact of higher interest rates on debt service costs.

The European Central Bank will release the accounts of its June policy meeting on Thursday. European Central Bank observers will also pay close attention to news of a series of meetings to be held in the coming weeks to adjust their strategic views.

The central bank hopes to revise its inflation target-the current setting is close to but not more than 2%-but sources say that there are still big differences among the top policymakers. The goal is to complete the review by September.

Asia

In Asia, the Bank of Australia may maintain its cash rate at historically low levels on Tuesday and adopt a “flexible” approach to its bond purchase plan. The economic results have far exceeded expectations, but the recent COVID-19 outbreak across the country and the slow launch of vaccinations have added some risks to the outlook. Analysts have predicted that the Bank of Australia will become one of the slowest central banks in developed countries to cancel stimulus measures during the crisis.

The Bank of Malaysia held a policy meeting on Thursday and no changes are expected. The focus will be on the prospects for recovery.

Finally, China will release new inflation data on Friday. One important point is the cost of raw materials. Due to rising commodity prices, the cost of raw materials has soared, and whether these increases will be passed on to consumers.