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What is the best way to achieve net zero emissions by 2050? The International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency), the oil regulator based in Paris, has developed a path that is “narrow but still can be fulfilled”.
To achieve this goal adopted by major economies such as the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive transformation of the global economy in the next three decades.
Under the IEA scenario, this would include stopping the sale of traditional gasoline vehicles by 2035, achieving 100% clean energy by 2040, and using heat pumps to meet at least half of all heating needs by 2045.
Although some industry executives and major energy-consuming countries believe that this path is inconsistent with current consumption patterns, it shows a thorough reform of the energy system.
As a result of improved efficiency, although the global economy will be 40% larger than it is now, total energy consumption in 2050 will be less than today.
Most energy will come from renewable energy sources. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that by 2050, solar power generation will increase 20 times and wind power generation will increase 11 times. Electricity consumption will also increase. Today, electricity consumption accounts for about 20% of total energy consumption. In this case, by 2050, this proportion will rise to 50%.
Expenses on power infrastructure will need to be increased accordingly. The total capital investment in the energy sector will need to increase to US$5 billion per year, of which investment in the transmission and distribution network will increase from the current US$260 billion to US$820 billion per year in 2030.
In this case, by 2050, the role of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas will be very limited. Coal will fall to only 4% of the global energy supply, mainly from power plants that have the ability to capture carbon dioxide before releasing it.
According to the International Energy Agency, by 2050, oil and natural gas will play a greater role, but not much. Under the agency’s scenario, oil demand will fall by 75% to 24 million barrels per day, and natural gas demand will fall by 55%.
The IEA report stated that since producers will only focus on their existing assets, there is no need for new exploration for oil, gas or coal supplies. Obviously, this means that over time, the Middle East will account for an increasing share of the world’s oil supply. As a result, OPEC’s control of the oil market will grow to approximately 52%, the highest level ever.
The IEA was established in 1974 by the oil-guzzling OECD countries that were concerned about the supply of oil after the Arab oil embargo caused prices to soar. Its mandate then evolved to consider all forms of energy security.
The IEA report clearly shows that if there are no major policy changes and a surge in energy investment, none of this will happen. The report says that people will have to change their lifestyles, and about 4% of the predicted emission reductions will come from changes in behavior, such as reducing long-distance flights.
Decision makers must also use all available tools, including pricing carbon dioxide emissions. The IEA predicts that as the price of oil drops in the net-zero scenario, the price of carbon dioxide will rise, especially in developed countries.
Governments also need to accelerate their emission reduction plans. In this report, IEA also reviewed the existing government climate plan, which will reduce emissions by only 35% by 2050.
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