British Prime Minister Johnson’s new COVID gamble worries some scientists Reuters

Author: Alistair Smot

LONDON (Reuters)-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to reopen the British economy from the coronavirus lockdown on July 19, but if he does this, some scientists will feel uneasy, and he has followed their guidelines so far. Suggest.

Although the UK has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK is facing a new wave of COVID-19. Johnson is gambling: his goal is not to close the country, but to coexist with the virus. This is the first test case in the world to test the vaccine’s ability to resist the Delta variant. (Global Vaccination Chart) https://tmsnrt.rs/3hG1IVb

Johnson has postponed the so-called “Freedom Day” for four weeks to allow more people to be vaccinated. He previously warned that due to the rapid spread of this more contagious mutant virus, thousands of people may die.

But now more than 86% of adults have received the first dose of the vaccine, and nearly two-thirds of adults have been fully vaccinated. Johnson has set July 19 as the “end” date for the restriction.

Anne Cori, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said that Johnson’s initial decision to postpone “Freedom Day” was behind one of the models. She said it was still too late to announce that the country can withstand the increasing number of cases. Too early. She told Reuters that it would be beneficial to postpone the lifting of restrictions again.

“I think the postponement can buy time. We are taking interventions that may help reduce infectivity,” Corey said, referring to enhanced injections and possible child vaccination. The UK has not yet decided to take this step.

More than 100 scientists wrote to the Lancet medical journal, calling Johnson’s plan to remove all restrictions “dangerous and immature”, adding that the strategy of tolerating high levels of infection was “immoral and illogical.”

But the Johnson administration stated that it not only needs to consider the epidemiological perspective, but is also satisfied with more deaths from the new coronavirus.

The new Minister of Health, Sajid Javid, cited other health, education and economic issues that have accumulated during the pandemic to promote the need to return to normal, even if the number of cases per day may reach 100,000.

Some people think that the summer school holidays are the most promising to lift this year’s restrictions, while others think that Johnson has been accused of waiting too long, leading to one of the highest death rates in the world. Locked-Another mistake is being made.

For the highly contagious Delta variant, vaccines seem to do a better job of preventing deaths and serious diseases than preventing transmission. Therefore, although the number of cases in the UK rose sharply this summer, the number of deaths did not rise so fast.

The average number of infections per day for 7 days now exceeds 25,000, which is more than 10 times the level in mid-May. However, so far, since mid-April, the average number of deaths per day has been below 30. Scientists say this proves that the vaccine is saving lives.

Nonetheless, there are warning signs: about 350 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in the UK every day. Although this is only a small part of the previous wave of comparable points, it has risen by about 45% in the past 7 days.

In Israel, one of the fastest deployment of vaccines and one of the first countries in the world to relax the blockade, the recent increase in the infection rate has prompted the government to consider re-implementing some restrictions, although the number of serious diseases and deaths remains low.

experiment

Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King’s College London who runs the research project ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, said he welcomes the government’s recognition that people must learn to coexist with the coronavirus.

But he questioned measures such as announcing the termination of the requirement to wear masks, which will not cost the economy any, and can help protect vulnerable groups and young people from the long-term impact of COVID

“There are things we can do, but they will not affect the economy… and I don’t think this has been emphasized enough,” he told Reuters.

The British government is scheduled to show updated models from Imperial College, the University of Warwick, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on July 12. It is expected that Johnson will make a final decision on whether to lift the restrictions in a week.

Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said the current model suggests that the peak will not cause pressure in January.

David Spiegelhalt, chairman of the Winton Center for Risk and Evidence Dissemination at the University of Cambridge, said the situation is very delicate.

“This is an experiment, and I think we have to call it that way,” he told Reuters. “I respect the judgment of Chris Whitty and others, and they say that if you want to do this, now is the right time to do it.”