Biden faces a difficult road to U.S. economic recovery

Joe Biden (Joe Biden) faced a chaotic and unpredictable economic outlook, which is the dual threat of rising inflation and slow employment growth, which shook people’s confidence in the stability of the US recovery from the pandemic.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported this month that the pace of job creation Significantly slowed down In April, people’s worries about general disparities in the labor market were heightened.

Immediately after the report, data released last week showed an unexpected sharp rise in its report last month Consumer price index, Intensified people’s worries about rising inflationary pressures.

The data has caused Biden to face more severe criticism of his economic management by Republicans, and hope that with the support of large-scale fiscal stimulus measures and rapid vaccinations, he hopes that he will bounce back smoothly from the coronavirus crisis.

United States Driven According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy will grow by 6.4% in 2021.

Wendy Edelberg, head of the Hamilton Project, an economic think tank at the Brookings Institution, said: “There are many signs that aggregate demand is recovering-the economy is recovering, but this recovery will It’s chaotic.” “Yes, it’s really hard to manage.”

Senior Biden administration officials cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from one month’s data. They believe that the average monthly job creation in the past three months is still much stronger than in the previous quarter. Inflation rebound It may only be temporary, and the recovery will continue steadily.

However, they also acknowledged that economic uncertainty is high when there are major changes in spending patterns and employment trends, as well as health-related restrictions. Dismissed The speed across the country is faster than expected-partly because of the pace of the country Vaccination campaign.

“There will be a period of time, because supply starts to equal demand and the sector is recovering and recovering, [during which] Cecilia Rouse, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters on Friday.

“We know that mismatches between different parts of the economy will appear in unexpected ways until the economy recovers more fully. As the President urged earlier this week, we must be patient,” she added .

Critics of government economic policy-formerly the Democratic Party Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers (Larry Summers) The Republicans on Capitol Hill used the latest data to argue that the Biden administration had desperately eliminated the risk of excessive fiscal stimulus and played down the economic warning signs.

“I’m worried about inflation. It’s all much faster and faster than I expected. It must make us nervous,” Summers write On Twitter on Friday.

“I think it’s very possible. Michael Strain, director of economic policy research at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, said that we are growing very fast and we have achieved great results. “I think. This may also end in a very bad situation. “

Other data released last week failed to explain the situation.University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index display Long-term inflation expectations have risen, while retail sales have remained flat last month after a sharp increase in March. On the bright side, the number of weekly jobless claims filed on Thursday fell to a pandemic low.

At this stage, the White House has no signs of any major changes in Biden’s policy agenda in response to emerging economic situations. In terms of the labor market, the president made a requirement that citizens who provide “appropriate” jobs are not eligible for unemployment benefits. Rose said that the White House is reminding companies to reserve tax credits for employees.its Stimulus plan.

The White House insists that the financial support measures formulated with the help of the Democrats in Congress can not only promote the country’s recovery, but also help the country. low-income family.It also pointed out its Federal Reserve Management The inflation rate has risen.

But Republicans and conservative economists called for more dramatic actions to cool the economy, such as the early abolition of federal unemployment benefits, which the national Republican-led country refused to pay.

At the same time, economists who were shocked by the data released in recent days warned that any assumptions about the US economic recovery (not to mention policy changes) must be reviewed.

Edelberg of the Hamilton Project said: “We are in uncharted territory.” “When you talk about the changes in aggregate demand that we are going through and the changes in supply we are going through, no matter what you do with inflation in normal times. Certainty increases it by an order of magnitude.”