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Twenty years ago, Violetta Chamorro defeated Daniel Ortega in the Nicaraguan elections. This month, Ortega arrested Chamorro’s daughter as part of an unprecedented crackdown on opposition figures, aimed at paving the way for his fourth consecutive presidency.
The experienced strongman chose his goals one by one before the November vote. Since June 2, Ortega has arrested four presidential candidates, a senior businessman and two opposition leaders. The chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce has also issued an arrest warrant.
José Miguel Vivanco, executive director of Human Rights Watch’s Americas Division, said: “It is clear that he is clearing the grounds and there is no meaningful opposition.”
The first thing Ortega saw was Christiana Chamorro, whose mother defeated the Sandinista rebels in the 1990 election. She denied being accused of money laundering and she was placed under house arrest.
Next is Arturo Cruz, the former ambassador to the United States.Under the treason law passed at the end of last year, Ortega was detained when he arrived at Managua airport-one of them A series of repressive measures Aims to eliminate the opposition after the 2018 protests, in which about 450 people died.
Then there are Christiana’s cousins Felix Madariaga and Juan Sebastian Chamorro, both of whom are accused of inciting foreign interference in domestic affairs.
All four are potential candidates for the November 7 election. The 75-year-old Ortega took power for the first time after the Sandinista revolution that overthrew the U.S.-backed dictator Anastasio Somoza in 1979. Is seeking another five-year term. He was in power from 1989 to 1990 and has been in power since 2007.
Opposition activist Violeta Granera, former Minister of Foreign Affairs José Pallais, and former head of Cosep, the largest business lobby group, José Adan Aghéri Adán Aguerri) was also detained. Mario Arana, the leader of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and former central bank governor, is in hiding.
“Daniel Ortega Bianca Jagger, a human rights defender in Nicaragua, said: “He is a man who maintains power at all costs-there is no limit to the repressive measures he will take.”
An adviser who asked not to be named to protect the people he worked with in Nicaragua said Ortega’s strategy was to “gradually cancel the election.” Or as Jagger said: “What you see is a Daniel Ortega who will never participate in an election where he will lose.”
Indeed, Ortega doubled his control of the electoral institutions in May, leaving his FSLN party to vote. He cancelled observers and allowed the ban on opposition parties.
Due to widespread fear, Ortega’s increasingly shameless tactics are unlikely to spread to the protests. Masked paramilitary personnel shot at demonstrators in 2018 Since then, Ortega has further strengthened his control of the country. As a local said: “He controls everything.”
Activists and regional political leaders hope that the United States will stand up. Nicaragua, along with Cuba and Venezuela, was included in what former US national security adviser John Bolton called the “troika of tyranny”, but “Ortega has been ignored by the United States and the international community for many years… That’s why he has it. Emboldened… uncensored,” said María Bozmoski of the Atlantic Council think tank.
Although the United States has imposed sanctions on allies and senior officials — including his wife Rosario Murillo, who is the regime’s vice president and mouthpiece, and some of his children — Ortega sneered at Washington.
Cristiana Chamorro is detained while U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Brinken is attending a regional meeting in Costa Rica next door. Others were arrested while Vice President Kamala Harris was in Mexico.
Nevertheless, “the only card left is the United States,” said Laura Chinchilla, the former president of Costa Rica. “Biden’s credibility is at stake.”
Julie Chung, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere, Tweet “Nicaragua is becoming an international untouchable, farther and farther away from democracy.”
The United States stated that if free and fair elections cannot be held, it will reconsider Nicaragua’s trade access to the United States.But pause it Cafta-DR Free Trade Agreement It may be counterproductive.
“Leaving Nicaragua in Kafta is like injecting blood into a dying patient and keeping him oxygen,” Bozmoski said.However, if Nicaragua is suspended, “the number of people who will suffer is 500,000, and their work depends on [export-oriented] Free zone. These jobs will seek to exist”.
Chinchilla urged lenders to “turn off the tap,” while Vivanco called for “a large number of targeted sanctions on key officials” to increase the crackdown on the Ortega regime.
But a senior American diplomat said that even if this works, it may “make the area where we are trying to do something further impoverished” and may trigger more Central American immigrants.
The diplomat added that during the 2018 protests, more than 100,000 Nicaraguans fled to Costa Rica. Although the number of people arriving at the U.S. border is still low, it has recently increased slightly.
Ortega’s control of the country, including the army and police, gave him protection, but the situation remained unstable.
“I’m not sure what will happen,” the consultant said. “But I’m sure this is not over yet.”
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