Arrest of dissident chills Belarusian opposition

Two years ago, after Belarusian authorities arrested a friend on apparently fabricated drug charges, Roman Protasevich first noticed the suspicious man who followed him in Minsk and fled to Poland to seek political asylum.

Since then, the dissident blogger and other opposition figures have fought strong president Alexander Lukashenko from European capitals such as Vilnius and Warsaw. The homeland of a large expatriate community that is not in harmony with the regime, they believe they are beyond his scope and protected by EU law.

However, last Sunday, this calculation has changed dramatically.Lukashenko pilots a fighter jet Forcibly downed Ryanair’s plane And arrested Protasevich, when he flew back to Vilnius from a holiday in Greece with his girlfriend.

“He thought he was safe. Protasevich’s father Dmitry told the Financial Times that he had no way of knowing what would happen-he was on an EU flight on EU territory. “I think only if he realizes it. When they are turning the plane, the fear will subside. “

Lukashenko’s actions immediately aroused condemnation from the West and Commitment to EU sanctionsWhile this inspires the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, it also injects new fear into their lives. Most of them are already in prison or exile, and they worry about the safety of their relatives returning home.

“No one is safe now. Whether in Belarus or the European Union,” said his assistant Franak Viacorka. Svyatlana ZihanusskayaThe opposition presidential candidate fled to Vilnius last year after being threatened by the Belarusian security agency (still known as the KGB in the Soviet era).

Last August, the bearded former collective farm owner Lukashenko, who ruled with an iron fist for 27 years, Increase the pressure on dissidents, After hundreds of thousands of people protested his highly suspicious re-election.

Since then, the police have arrested more than 34,000 people on charges related to protests and allegedly tortured many detainees. However, even according to these standards, Protasevich’s arrest is an escalation of repression and a worrying sign that it may be worse.

Lukashenko threatened this week that “all fugitives and protesters” would be “responsible for their crimes” and made it clear that Belarus would hunt down activists in exile, no matter where they are.

The arrest of Protasevic was a special shock for Zihanusskaya and Viakorka, as they only took the same flight from Athens a week ago. “The entire KGB is now trying to destroy Qihanusskaya. We need to be aware of this and we need to take care of ourselves,” Vyakoka said.

In 2010, after Lukashenko announced the overwhelming election victory for the last time to suppress major protests, the exile community in Belarus began to grow.

In response, Western countries have increased their support for opposition media, including Radio Free Europe funded by the United States and Belsat funded by Poland. Even so, dissidents have continued to visit Belarus for several years.

But then, the opposition channel Nexta on Telegram, a messaging app based in Poland, began publishing leaked content from the Belarusian authorities and movies involving Lukashenko’s corruption.

Then, last summer, Nexta played a leading role in publishing live coverage of the protests, and sometimes even seemed to guide them. Edited by Protasevich at the time, its audience once exceeded 2 million-a huge number in a country with a population of only 9.5 million.

The success of Nexta expresses the dissatisfaction of Belarusians with Lukashenko. But this also seems to convince Lukashenko that exiled dissidents pose an existential threat to his rule.

“The reporter and their channel didn’t mean their words. They really insulted [Lukashenko and his regime]”,” said Igor Trushkevich, a Belarusian dissident living in Ukraine. “It is entirely possible that Lukashenko has been offended personally. .. He will not forgive contempt. “

In order to tighten the noose around Protasevich, his family said that KGB agents tried to persuade his father, a retired lieutenant colonel, to trick his son into Prague, where security forces would kidnap him. When his parents moved to Poland, Lukashenko personally deprived Protashevich of his father’s military rank.

The source of Nexta’s news has also become a target. The Supreme Court of Belarus sentenced an army officer to 18 years in prison this month for sending a document to Nexta showing that the Ministry of the Interior had asked thousands of soldiers to quell “mass riots.”

Stsiapan Putsila, the founder of Nexta, said that since Protasevich was arrested, he and his colleagues have been threatened that they would be killed, or handed over to the Belarusian authorities, or their Warsaw office was bombed.

“Of course, we will have to be more careful… All comments indicate that we are next,” after Protasevich, he told the Financial Times. “But we must continue, we must continue to fight, we must continue to oppose the regime, and we will do so.”

Nevertheless, Trushkevich believes that the forced landing of the Ryanair flight was also intended to scare Nexta readers.

He said: “The first signal is just to make people think it might happen to them to scare them.” “The second is to show their supporters how strong they are and how stable the government is. Anything that crosses the line they draw. Everyone has problems—forever.”

After a turbulent week, the opposition in Belarus has mixed emotions. The arrest of Protasevich and his girlfriend is frightening.But there is also hope that the international community will take tougher actions against Lukashenko, including Fluctuating sanctions.

“That day, when we tried to figure out what happened, I couldn’t sleep or eat. It was horrible,” said Aksana, a Minsk businesswoman. “On the other hand, I hope this situation helps remind the world to pay attention to us because we cannot rely on ourselves. We will not fight with guns.”