Analysis-Ethiopian government withdraws from Tigray’s capital to open a new chapter in war Reuters

Authors: Katharine Houreld, Giulia Paravicini and Maggie Fick

Humela, Ethiopia/Nairobi (Reuters)-Diplomats and analysts say that the occupation of the capital of the Tigray region by the rulers who were expelled this week was a dramatic setback for the Ethiopian government and opened a new chapter in brutal war. But it does not mean the end.

A showdown on the fertile farmland in western Tigray is brewing, and humanitarian agencies say they still cannot provide enough assistance to hundreds of thousands of people facing famine.

Troops loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) took control of Merkel on Monday night seven months after they withdrew from the city, the party that has ruled the Ethiopian government for nearly three decades.

The government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed played down this reversal, and his rise in 2018 marked the end of TPLF power. It declared a unilateral humanitarian ceasefire and stated that its soldiers had left Merkler to respond to greater security threats elsewhere.

But TPLF and some international observers described this transformation as the defeat of the army, the Ethiopian Defense Forces (ENDF).

As Ethiopia prepares for the national elections on June 21, the Tigray army launched a major offensive. Residents and diplomats said they occupied the northern and western towns of Merkel and advanced into the center of Adigrat, the second largest city in the northern region.

A senior diplomat in the capital Addis Ababa told Reuters: “They surrounded Meckler for two to three days.” “ENDF realized they were going to be massacred or left. They decided to leave.”

Reuters was unable to independently verify the accounts of residents and diplomats.

Territorial gains

According to a UN report, as the pro-government forces retreated to the disputed western part of Tigray, TPLF quickly took control of the main cities and roads in the area, and there was basically no fighting.

On Thursday, TPLF vowed to drive the army and its allies from neighboring Eritrea and Ethiopia’s Amhara region out of the rest of Tigray.

“We are approaching the west and south of our territory… so we can completely liberate every square inch of Tigray,” TPLF spokesperson Getachew Reda told Reuters via satellite phone.

Colonel Getnet Adane, spokesman for the Ethiopian military, and Billene Seyoum, spokesman for the prime minister, did not answer questions about the TPLF and the diplomats’ assertions.

In Meckler’s first public comment after his arrest, Abi said that the city is no longer the “center of the conflict”. He said the army was “stabbed in the back by its own people.” He accused the civilians in Tigray of refusing to supply water to exhausted soldiers, burying weapons in church cemeteries, and lying to rescuers to obtain extra rations from TPLF.

The Abbey government has been fighting TPLF since early November when it accused the then ruling Tigray party of attacking military bases in the area. TPLF denied this accusation.

The fighting took place a few months after the relationship between TPLF and the government deteriorated. TPLF accused the government of discriminating against the Tigray people and trying to centralize power. The government stated that it is cracking down on TPLF “criminal groups.”

Eritrea and Amhara regions sent troops to Tigray to support the army in the first few days of the war. Murithi Mutiga, the project director of the Horn of Africa of the International Crisis Organization, stated that Eritrea fought a brutal war with Ethiopia from 1998 to 2000, and “absolutely will be worried, and may even be due to the recovery of the Tigray army. And panic”.

The Minister of Information of Eritrea did not respond to a request for comment.

Amhara officials said that they have reclaimed a large area of ​​territory, about a quarter of Tigray’s, this is their historical territory, and they have no intention of leaving.

Tigray officials said that the western region has long been the home of these two ethnic groups and accused the Amharic army of expelling hundreds of thousands of Tigray people. The Amhara regional government strongly denies this.

It is believed that this battle has killed thousands of people and displaced more than 2 million people. The United Nations has talked about possible war crimes committed by all parties, including mass killings of civilians and gang rapes.

Aid blocked

The United Nations said on Thursday that the government controls electricity, telecommunications and Internet connections throughout Tigray. Most roads into the area have been blocked, and the United Nations says that more than 350,000 people in the area are facing famine.

Government officials on Friday denied allegations by the TLPF and humanitarian agencies that the government prevented aid from reaching Tigray and said they would support United Nations flights to the region.

The United Nations World Food Program said that on Thursday, two bridges on the Tekeze River near the northern town of Shire were destroyed, making it more difficult to provide assistance.

It is unclear who is responsible for this. The government blamed TPLF. Residents and humanitarian officials pointed the finger at the army or the Amharic army.

The Shire and other towns east of the river are now controlled by the Tigray army. According to two security officials in the town of Humera west of Tigray controlled by Amhara, Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers retreated to areas west and south of the river.

Amare Goshu is the head of the Abiy Welfare Party in the region and works closely with the military and Amhara regional forces. He said that if the TPLF fighters cross the river, they are prepared to take their stand.

“We have the right to defend ourselves,” he told Reuters.

On Thursday, Humera was crowded with Ethiopian soldiers, Amhara regional police and local militiamen, sitting under a tree in an outdoor coffee shop with their rifles within reach.

A truck of Eritrean soldiers roared on a dusty road in a hand-painted camouflage pickup truck. They wore their iconic black plastic sandals and frowned when they were photographed.

Zewdu Tarekegn, an Amharic farmer, stated that TPLF should not attempt to attack Humera.

“A polished gun is waiting for them,” he said.

(Reporting by Humera by Katharine Houreld and Giulia Paravicini, Maggie Fick from Nairobi; additional reporting by Dawit Endeshaw in Addis Ababa; writing by Katharine Houreld; editing by Alexandra Zavis and Nick Macfie)