Betting on the Ashes

If you do something you love, you’ll never work a day in your life. But what if you love a sport but do not have what it takes to go pro? While I can watch cricket non-stop, explain the oddities of the game to Yanks for hours, and happily sit in my car at lunch to catch an hour’s test match, the simple truth is, I’m never going to be invited to play.

Though I am challenged by being uncoordinated, I am, however, not so when it comes to predicting the outcome of match-ups.

Early on, I found I could have a little flutter betting mates on the likely results. My father was most impressed by my encyclopedic knowledge of the teams, statistics, but most so, forecasting the number of runs. And it was he who, after a time, despite my Mum’s disapproval, started betting on my prognostications.

Now I must say first and foremost, gambling, in general, is addictive. And I do not condone such. On the other hand, if you have a sixth sense for something, and bookmakers are willing to offer odds, then why not engage? Is it so different from being a stockbroker, or an economist?

While only a few punters become successful, there are ways to hone your skills.

Know the Game

You need to know cricket intimately before you dive in. Like others who earn a living from playing the odds, pros know their games inside out. They study the habits of other players, can real off successful plays and strategies, and the like.

There are ways to hone your skills without risking anything. Practice for a time, get to know what the oddsmakers are predicting, and make a wager. Then track your results as if you had actually laid down a bet. Look at how you did against what you actually forecasted.

To be successful you need to reduce your risk. You do this by analyzing your predictions. Both the good and bad. You want to know what it was that you foresaw. How was your modeling of the match accurate? Or, if now, what did you miss? You also want to ask yourself, how does the modeling of this outcome compare to similar matches in the past.

Improve Your Knowledge of Statistics

Modeling relies on being able to compute the odds and doing such quickly. The bookmakers are also setting initial odds, but unlike the punters, they are reacting to the market. As more bets come in a certain way, the odds will change to reflect what is being forecast. Unlike the punters, the bookmakers straddle the playing field. They generally should make money regardless of the odds (unless nobody bets on the underdog)

But statistics is not a straightforward science. It demands an ability to look at clusters of results and discern a pattern. There have been several advances in statistics that those who model outcomes for a living should know. Being able to spot a linear regression, for For example, can help hone a forecast.

Watch Forecasts & Tutorials

It’s the 21st century and everybody who has an “insight” is creating a channel and hoping to monetize their knowledge. While much of the content is self-serving, from time to time, vloggers throw out worthwhile tidbits.

Like other professions, keeping abreast of both the cricket in general, and the modeling techniques that one can apply, will improve your ability to forecast.

There are many articles on sports betting that can be insightful.

Connect with Others Who Share Your Passion

You are not alone. There are whole communities of people as interested in cricket as you and I. Like you, many people share our passion for cricket. In fact, at a job interview once, talking about cricket helped me get into the next round . It’s interesting to note that career advisors like Lensa specifically suggest proudly broadcasting your hobbies.

Be Careful Selecting Where You Bet

As with anything over the internet these days, you need to be cautious. There are armies of scammers looking to catch a novice who will part with a credit card number, and where no product or service is supplied. For some good insights, visit OffTheBenchBaseball.com which suggests some do’s and don’ts. While this is about American Baseball, the words of wisdom apply equally.

So there you have it, if you have a knack for spotting a winner, with some caution, you can make yourself so cash. But you need to be realistic, watch that you do not get in over your head. It’s great being able to boast, but hearing an extra ka-ching when the results are broadcast makes the feeling of being spot on all the sweeter.