Europe is expected to usher in the past infection rate to reopen the economy

The largest country in the European Union is lifting restrictions on the coronavirus, hoping that speeding up the vaccination program will enable them to return to normal life more quickly. But epidemiologists worry that this transition will come too early and that progress may be reversed.

In a little over a week, France lifted the travel ban, Spain relaxed its “alert state” for six months, and Germany eased its blockade. In the past month, Italy has gradually relaxed restrictions, and people expect to return to the gym and indoor swimming pool soon.

Although the EU infection has About halved Since the beginning of April, they are still high in some places, and the number of deaths per week in hospitals under pressure is still around 1,500 in France and Italy, 1,000 in Germany, and around 600 in Spain.

Antoine Flahault, director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva, warned that Europe’s goal “should be to make the virus subside” before the summer travel season.

He said: “If we don’t want to restart the problem too quickly, we have to drop to a lower level.” “If some places are stuck in a medium to high plateau, summer and autumn will be very complicated.”

Overall, in 30 countries/regions, the 14-day case notification rate per 140,000 people Tracked Provided by the European Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lower than 489 on April 1.

With the influx of vaccines and the launch of the European Union, the first focus is on the most vulnerable people in society, rather than those at the greatest risk of infection. This decline has already arrived.

According to “Our World Data” reports, about 30% of the EU population has received at least one dose-twice the level a month ago, although it is still far below the levels of major countries Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States.

But many health professionals worry that due to the relaxation of containment measures, the level of protection is still too low to prevent further increases in infections.

It takes about two weeks for the rule changes to appear in the infection data, and it takes longer for hospitalization and death. Therefore, it is too early to say which trend will win: vaccination can reduce rates or loose restrictions can push prices up.

One thing people can agree on is that next month is crucial.

In France, Lila Bouadma, who is in charge of the intensive care unit of the Bicat Hospital in Paris, expressed concern to the French government that the country plans to reopen before June 30. She told Radio France Information.

France will reopen outdoor bars, restaurants and non-food retail stores on Wednesday. It still records about 14,000 infections every day, but Flahaut’s model predicts that by reopening, the infection rate will drop to about 11,000.

Prime Minister Jean Castex (Jean Castex) defended France’s plan step by step.

He told Le Parisien: “We will finally get rid of this crisis once and for all.” He added: “If the situation gets out of control locally, measures will be taken.”

However, the country’s scientific advisory panel has requested that France have not been successful so far. It has adopted a similar approach to Germany, which requires that the infection rate be reduced to a set level before each stage of reopening.

This month, the German authorities eased the six-month blockade on Germany. Prior to this, the country’s incidence fell to 96.5 cases per 100,000 in 7 days. This is the first time since March 20 that it has fallen below 100. For example, in Bavaria, beer gardens, cinemas and theaters are allowed to reopen from May 10th.

However, if the indicator exceeds 100 cases again, the “emergency brake” will automatically take effect and will be subject to night curfews and other restrictions.

Even so, Lothar Willer, director of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s main public health agency, warned that 173 out of 173 of the 412 districts in Germany still have more than 100, and the incidence is still “still very high. high”.

Health Minister Jens Spahn added that although the latest figures are “exciting”, Germans should “be careful not to let this confidence become a reckless move.”

Spain has also expressed similar concerns. In Spain, the legal order supporting the country’s coronavirus restrictions was terminated on May 9, sparking public excitement and fierce political disputes. With the passage of this policy, some areas have reduced restrictions, while others have faced legal challenges in restricting roadsides.

Many people’s initial reaction was to attend the party: the night before the change, the police gathered a group of young people at Puerta del Sol in central Madrid, and similar things happened in Barcelona and other parts of the country.

The politicians are not so festive. The opposition People’s Party vehemently criticized the left-wing government for refusing to replace the state of alert with new legislation.

However, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez defended the decision, saying that the country is less than 100 days away from vaccinating 70% of the population. The Prime Minister said: “The state of alert is the past.” “The future is called vaccination, vaccination, vaccination.”

Indeed, although there are no clear indicators to allow the alert status to expire, Spain’s infections have recently been lower than other major EU economies.

But in Spain, like everywhere else, what really matters is the course of the illness in the next few weeks.

Bruno Lina, a Lyon virologist who advises the French government, described what he called a “critical moment.”

He said: “From now on, the situation will indeed be much better-considering the vaccination campaign and the lower infection rate, it is indeed possible.” “But we must convince the public to continue to be cautious.”

Other reports by Miles Johnson in Rome