Due to climate change, the heat wave in the Pacific Northwest may soon repeat itself

Andrea Januta

(Reuters)-A study found that the suffocating heat wave that caused hundreds of deaths in the Pacific Northwest last week was “near impossible” without climate change.

Scientists reported on Wednesday the first study to attribute the event to climate change, saying that climate change has increased the likelihood of such heat waves in the region by 150 times. Scientists estimate that an abnormal temperature is a one-thousandth event, but point out that given the unprecedented high temperature in early summer, this is difficult to quantify. But they warned that if current greenhouse gas emissions continue, such extreme events will begin to occur every 5 to 10 years by the 2040s.

“People need to realize that heat waves are killers, and they are by far the deadliest extreme event,” said co-author Frederick Otto, a climate scientist at Oxford University and co-head of the World Weather Attribution Organization, which is an international The scientific group published the research. The https:// research conducted by 27 scientists is still awaiting peer review, but the rapid attribution method using peer review yields results quickly after extreme events occur.

“The heat wave is really changing much faster than all other extreme events,” Otto said. “Preparing heat during heat waves and preventing death needs to be the top priority of every city authority.”

At the end of June, the heat wave swept parts of the United States and Canada, breaking records in dozens of cities. The wire melted in the high temperature. The road is curved. Canada broke the national temperature record three times, reaching a peak of 121 degrees Fahrenheit (49.6 degrees Celsius) on June 29-a full 8 degrees Fahrenheit (4.6 degrees Celsius) higher than the record set in 1937.

Later this week, another heat wave is expected to hit parts of Canada and the United States.

The death toll in Oregon alone has exceeded 100, while the death toll in British Columbia is hundreds more than usual. It takes several months to calculate the complete death toll, but scientists say these numbers will rise. Hospitals have also seen a surge in the number of hospital visits and emergency service calls related to high temperatures.

New research attributing heat waves to climate change is not entirely surprising. Worldwide, climate change has made heat waves more common, more severe, and longer lasting.

However, the June heat wave was far beyond normal in the Pacific Northwest. To this end, the author proposes two possible explanations: Either a very rare event is caused by a combination of multiple factors, which is worsened by climate change, or climate change has changed atmospheric conditions, so this type of heat wave is now It is more common than previously understood.

Research shows that no matter which way, industry-driven climate change has played a key and important role.

“Most types of extreme events are becoming more frequent,” said Philip Mott, a climate scientist at Oregon State University, who was not involved in the study. Or in terms of heat waves in the Pacific Northwest, he said, extreme events can sometimes become “almost unimaginable.”

‘Clear human fingerprints’

The temperature spike is caused by what scientists call a “hot dome” or a large amount of high-pressure air stopping over the area. Like the lid on the pot, the dome traps hot air under it.

Although the timing of the weather is unusual-record-breaking temperatures are rare at the beginning of the summer-but last month proved to be the warmest June on record in North America and the fourth warmest June in the world. Scientists at the Copernicus Climate Center changed services reported Wednesday.

In recent years, scientific advances have allowed researchers to link specific extreme weather events to climate change. (Extreme weather map) https://tmsnrt.rs/3wcycMk

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, said: “This particular extreme heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and the modern era in which we live are full of extreme heat waves, with obvious human fingerprints.” Did not participate in this new study. Los Angeles.

To establish a climatic link to the heat wave last week, the authors of the study used computer simulations to estimate that there was no global warming, and compared it with the current situation and what actually happened.

“This incident shocked everyone who had experienced it in the Pacific Northwest. This is a matter of course, because there is nothing close to it in the modern historical record,” Swain said. “But it may just become a relatively common event.”