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The outcome of the Iranian presidential election on Friday may reshape the country’s political power balance—and Tehran’s relationship with its allies and competitors.
Conservative candidate Ibrahim Raisi is widely regarded as the front-runner to succeed Hassan Rouhani, the second reformer president whose term is about to end.
Iranian Attorney General Lai Xi is one of the five hardliners in the campaign.
Two low-key reformist candidates are also vying for the highest political office in Iran.
The victory of Raisi or any other conservative candidate will mark a breakthrough in the reform agenda led by Rouhani and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif since 2013.
In turn, this could have a major impact on European powers keen to engage with Tehran on a range of issues, including the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement, a series of regional conflicts, and the detention of dual nationals.
“The results of the election are important to European countries,” Eldar Mammadov, a foreign policy adviser to the Socialist and Democratic Organization of the European Parliament, told Al Jazeera.
In his personal speech, Mamedov predicted that the victory of any hardline candidate would usher in a “concise phase” of EU-Iran relations.
There are four things to consider here:
Nuclear agreement
The European parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have become fragmented after the then President Donald Trump decided to unilaterally withdraw the United States from the agreement in May 2018 year.
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the European Union tried to mitigate the impact of re-imposing punitive economic sanctions on Tehran after Washington withdrew, but with little success.
At the same time, Iran has increased its non-compliance with the agreement.
But US President Joe Biden’s attempt to restore the agreement and even extend its terms has boosted the hopes of European signatories to restore the agreement.
Tehran wants Washington to take the first step towards lifting the sanctions, while Iran opposes the expansion of the original agreement, which restricts Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions lifting.
However, despite the obvious differences, analysts said that Iran’s elections are unlikely to change the obvious direction of the restoration agreement, which was initially facilitated under Rouhani’s supervision.
The sixth round of indirect US-Iran negotiations aimed at restoring the agreement was held in Vienna over the weekend. All seven presidential candidates supported the continuation of the negotiations.
Crucially, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is also the country’s main decision maker on foreign and nuclear policies.
“Sanctions relief is [Iranian] Sanam Wakir, deputy director and senior researcher of the Middle East and North Africa Project at the Chatham Institute, a British think tank, told Al Jazeera.
“So I didn’t see the process being affected [by the Iranian election] Unless the United States refuses to compromise on sanctions relief,” she said.
Prisoners of dual citizenship
Iran does not recognize dual citizenship, and there are no accurate figures on the number of citizens of European countries imprisoned in the country.
Some known detainees argued that they were detained on false accusations and used by Tehran as a bargaining chip in dealing with Western powers.
Among them are Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Fariba Adelkhah and Kamren Ghaderi, who are British-Iranian, French-Iranian and Austrian-Iranian dual nationalities respectively.
According to Mamedov, the European powers of the Australian state should assume Tehran’s position of “extreme suspicion” of the intentions of these personal and human rights issues-
“Their past records have not inspired people to be kind to them or prepare to release confidence in these people,” he said.
Wakir said that during the conservative presidency, Tehran may increase the intensity of such detentions.
“In general, the Conservative Party agrees that these tough strategies and building influence are useful strategies,” she said. “For the West, their conclusion is that this type of tactic is important, and this type of card is important for standing by.”
However, the two analysts also said that the victory of the conservative president may improve the fortunes of dual nationals currently incarcerated and reduce the number of people imprisoned.
They pointed out that the detention of dual nationals is a tactic frequently used by conservatives in important positions other than the president, such as the judiciary, to undermine Rouhani’s reform agenda.
As conservatives are expected to take control of the state after the election, analysts say that the incentive to take such actions may decrease in the next few years-policymakers have more room to engage with competitors without worrying about domestic factionalism weakened This effort.
conflict
The results of Friday’s election may affect the extent to which Iran and European powers conflict or cooperate in their efforts to end the conflicts they are involved in.
If, as expected, conservatives win the presidency, Tehran may seek to increase pressure on its regional rivals—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—and its European allies through its representatives in Syria and Yemen. Soldiers demonstrate force and Afghanistan.
The same is true in Iraq. Victory by Lai Xi or other conservatives may escalate the attack on US forces by Iranian-backed militias and weaken the prospects for cooperation between Tehran and Washington’s European allies.
“Raisi supports Iran’s forward defense and resistance strategy,” Wakir said. “Therefore, people worry that Iran will be less willing to compromise on regional issues.”
Russia
Vakir said that Iran’s alliance with Russia is unlikely to be significantly affected by the results of the presidential election, especially considering Khamenei’s control of foreign policy.
“They already have close ties with Russia,” she said. “I don’t think things will change, for better or worse.”
However, Mammadov said that a move towards conservatism could further strengthen Iran’s relations with Moscow.
“Of course, conservatives are more open and tend to build closer relations with Russia,” he said.
“They think Russia is an anti-Western country, just like China, and hope that Iran can join Russia and China to form an anti-Western axis.”
Given that major European powers such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany have escalated tensions over a series of issues, this move may lead to further deterioration of Tehran’s relations with major European powers such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.
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