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Analysts say that Khalifa Haftar, the military commander who defected in Libya, is improving his political profile before the election as his support at home and abroad has gradually weakened after his defeat on the battlefield.
Haftar’s eastern forces fought for more than a year to seize the western capital of Tripoli, but their failure in June last year laid the foundation for the peace talks supported by the United Nations, the coalition government, and the national elections planned for December.
“He hopes that the election will give him a political victory after a military defeat,” said Miloud el-Hajj, a professor of international relations.
In the decade of violence that followed the overthrow of dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Haftar has become a key player.
The commander fought against armed groups and established a solid foundation of support between influential tribes in eastern Libya and neighboring Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia.
However, two years after his Libyan National Army launched an offensive to overthrow the Turkish-backed Tripoli coalition government, the situation has been very different.
The formal truce in October last year initiated a process led by the United Nations, which led to the establishment of an interim government whose mission was to unify the country’s divided institutions, initiate reconstruction efforts and prepare for the December vote.
Haftar has kept a low profile throughout the talks, but in recent weeks he has made a comeback through public gatherings and promises to build three new towns and thousands of homes for “martyr” families.
el-Hajj said: “His tone and language have changed…he has given up his military rhetoric” and instead supports promises to improve living conditions.
‘Facing provocation’
Haftar established his power base around Benghazi, the second largest city in Libya, which was the eastern cradle of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that overthrew and killed Gaddafi.
He found allies among the powerful tribes in the area and provided most of the troops for Haftar’s various military offensives.
But according to the Libyan analyst Mahmoud Khalfallah, today, Haftar “lost the basis of support”.
“He no longer enjoys the indisputable support of the tribe. They accused him of getting their son into a war in which many people got nothing,” Khalfallah said.
“He knows they don’t trust him anymore, and they won’t abandon their son for another war.”
Libyan expert Jalel Harchaoui said that despite repeated meetings with tribal leaders to regain their support, Haftar is now facing “serious resistance issues.”
Harchaoui added: “His finances have dried up, and his hopes of expanding territory in the west have also been blocked.”
Khalfallah said that even Haftar’s foreign allies have become cautious and support the new interim government.
He said: “His foreign sponsors…have understood that the political process is the only possible solution” to safeguard their interests in Libya.
Haftar seeks “political victory”
Haftar has played a controversial but crucial role in Libya since the chaos after Gaddafi stepped down.
Before the battle for the capture of Tripoli, he launched a successful operation in May 2018 to drive the rebels away from the eastern city of Derna, and then launched another operation in the oil-rich southern desert in 2019.
After Libya’s disastrous defeat in Chad in 1987, the commander served in Gaddafi’s armed forces, but his goal now is to make a political comeback, Haji said.
A European diplomatic source warned that if key players such as Haftar are excluded from the political process, they may become “destroyers” and undermine efforts to stabilize the country.
Verisk Maplecroft analyst Hamish Kinnear said Haftar may participate in the presidential election or support a candidate.
However, if the president and legislature’s polls are postponed beyond December, Haftar “may use this to accuse the transitional government of being illegal and consider returning to armed conflict,” Kinnell said.
However, he added that Haftar “is no longer as strong as before.”
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