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In Brussels, people were shocked and angry. In Switzerland, there is quiet celebration and relief-but, for some people, doubts about what will happen next.
On Wednesday, Berne announced the official Withdraw from negotiations Codify future relations with the EU into a single overall “framework agreement”-since 2014, this back and forth exchange has dominated the increasingly tense relations with Brussels.
“In the commercial sector, you would never sign such a contract,” said Philip Erzinger, head of Kompass Europe, an anti-framework agreement movement. “This is one aspect. It requires us to accept EU law without any rejection mechanism. This will directly interfere with our direct democracy and the cantons in Switzerland.”
For opponents of this process, this moment is Similar to the British referendum End his membership in the group-Swexit in a sense.
There are similarities. Switzerland has never joined the European Union and refused to join the European Economic Area in a referendum in 1992.
However, through 120 bilateral agreements, it has almost full access to the EU’s internal market and is a member of its passport-free travel zone. It also works closely with the groups surrounding it on a large number of economic and legal matters.
Even so, in the absence of a framework agreement, the EU will not update or upgrade bilateral arrangements when it changes its own rules. As a result, the Swiss will gradually lose access, bringing uncertainty to businesses and residents.
Switzerland is the EU’s fourth largest trading partner. More than 1.4 million EU and British nationals live in Switzerland. According to customs authorities, an estimated 330,000 people cross the Swiss land border every day.
This decision was a huge victory for the Swiss right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party SVP, which has long opposed Switzerland’s giving way to Brussels.
However, unlike the UK on June 24 five years ago, Switzerland on Thursday morning hardly felt like a political earthquake had just happened.
“To be honest, I haven’t realized the direct consequences of this on our business,” said Hugo Roppel, CEO of Geneva Logistics Group, a Swiss freight company in Geneva. “The most reasonable approach is to say that we need Europe, and Europe needs Switzerland… I think everyone needs to take some time to calm down, and then negotiations may start again.”
Martin Janssen, CEO of Zurich-based financial software company Ecofin, said that “Switzerland must be allowed to be different.” He said that the framework agreement does not provide for this.
After seven years of diplomatic setbacks, many Swiss are happy to have the opportunity to move on.
The country’s largest newspaper provided tepid support for the Federal Council’s move. “Despite all sympathy [one might have] In order to overcome the narrow borders that led to many wars in Europe, there is no need to sign everything Brussels wants,” the left-leaning major newspaper Tages-Anzeiger wrote in an editorial.
Lukas Golder, president of GFS Bern, a leading Swiss polling agency, said that this attitude may be typical of most Swiss people.
He said that the close relationship with the EU has received widespread support, but people think that too much has been given up. Many Swiss people are also optimistic that Brussels will accept Berne’s plan B-known as the “bilateral track”-and the existing agreement can be rolled over separately.
“People think that Switzerland’s position relative to the European Union is too weak. But there may also be too high expectations for alternatives,” Gold said.
Erzinger, an activist who opposes the framework agreement, said that the EU will eventually return to the negotiating table. At the same time, he said, Switzerland will have to endure “freezing periods, when you will feel the chill from Brussels.” But unlike Brexit, it will be able to rely on “existing agreements so that we can take a breath instead of panic.”
The diplomat warned that this optimism is wrong. The overall intention of the EU in seeking a single “framework agreement” with Switzerland is to limit the country’s privileges as much as possible, or to seek concessions to maintain these privileges.
With the entry into force of the guillotine clause, certain key agreements are already at risk of impending collapse. The Swiss Federal Council said in a statement on Thursday that it has begun to take preventive measures, such as storing medical equipment, which shows how serious this may be.
Avenir Suisse, a pro-EU think tank based in Zurich, Calculation The invalidation of the Swiss-EU agreement on medical equipment, industrial machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals will result in a one-time cost of 1.7 billion Swiss francs (US$1.9 billion) and an annual regular cost of 1.3 billion Swiss francs for Swiss companies in these industries. Sexual cost.
Teresa Hug Alonso, a researcher at Avenir Suisse, said that the Federal Council, which operates by consensus, failed to show the Swiss people the potential disadvantages of canceling the framework agreement.
She said that because of party politics, rather than lack of public support, it ended the negotiations. However, recent surveys indicate that a referendum on a framework agreement could have been passed with 60% support.
SVP is the only party that is blatantly anti-EU, but other parties are ambiguous about Europe at best. For example, the Social Democratic Party strongly opposes measures to weaken the wage protection of Swiss workers, and this issue has become a red line.
Switzerland now faces the prospect of a gradual deterioration in economic relations with the European Union. But for one of the richest countries in the world, this will not be a disaster, embrace Alonso’s admission.
“We are not talking about large-scale changes. This is an erosion. This is a problem. It will not create momentum in Switzerland for new negotiations with the EU.”
Additional reporting by Domitille Alain in Paris
This article has been revised to correct the date of the 2016 UK referendum results
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